Private channel session 1104
17 messages over 3h 7m, 2021-03-14 – 2021-03-14.
A “conversation” here is an activity session — a run of messages with under 60 minutes of silence inside it. The channel had no native conversation boundaries.
-
So - I am obviously struggling to get this straight - grate data ([high levels of virus in the sewer] suggests that lineageB SC2 infected raccoon dog or dogs and perhaps other animals were in the Market. These lineage B viruses spreadto 30 or more ppl who were linked to the market and were already accumulating mutations. Lineage A virus differsfrom lineage B at positions 8,782 in ORF1ab and 28,144 in ORF8. Lineage A is more like bat viruses and had infected several other ppl in Wuhan, but not linked to this market - one of those ppl flew to Seattle and started theWA1 lineage. WA1 lineage died out in the US. WA1 is lineage A and has bat-like T8782 and C28144 plus another bat-like snp and therefore may be even closer to the MCRA than the other early sequenced lineage A viruses from Wuhan. WA2 (also lineage A) was introduced separately. WA1 did not give rise to WA2.
-
Lots of questions. 1. How different were the lineage B SC2s from the humans and environmental samples at the market? Market lineage B SC2s had apparently accumulated some mutations (the Chen paper says 14). 2. Did the SC2s from the environmental samples give rise to the samples in the early Wuhan patients linked to the market orperhaps is it the other way around or perhaps no way to tell? 3. Is it fair to say that lineage A likely gave rise tolineage B?
-
Seems to me - given the smoking raccoon dog - low Cts from the grate indicating the animals were infected that it isa LOT more likely that the animal or animals infected the humans in the market instead of the other way around. Most likely scenario for the 30 cases linked to the market is a human-to-human super-spreader type event. Just can't really see multiple ppl individually getting infected from a few caged animals.
-
Assuming a. human to animal transmission is an unlikely explanation for the smoking raccoon dog and b. that lineage A gave rise to lineage B, this suggests that the 2 or 3 snps that converted lineage A to B happened via animal-to-animal transmission in a batch of animals that includes some animals that ended up in the Hubai market and some animals that ended up elsewhere. The Hubai market animal initiated the lineage B human-to-human transmissions. The hypothetical group of other animals initiated the lineage A human-to-human transmission. The animal-to-animal transmissions that created the 2 or 3 snps that converted lineage A to B could have been completely in the wild or after the animals were trapped and hauled to market. If in the wild it means that lineage Aand B viruses are circulating and it just happened that a lineage A and a lineage B animal were both were trapped atabout the same time initiating separate SC2 outbreaks within weeks of each other. On the other hand I can easily see one infected animal infecting another during transport and separate distribution to a couple of markets inWuhan.
-
Either this or the nefarious virologists at the WIV engineered two lineages of SC2 and in a moment of inspiration tocover up their genocidal plan decided to infect a bunch of animals in the Hubai market with lineage B SC2 and abunch of other unsuspecting civilians in Wuhan with lineage A SC2.
-
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9359039/WHO-set-reject-Wuhan-lab-link-Covid-outbreak-instead-point-sou rce-animal-market.html
-
Cue outrage. Bob - I'll look at your other questions shortly.
-
Daily Mail is not too reliable. However, if I'm reading the signals from Koopmans and Daszak right, the smoking dogis gonna be big in the report.. I do think that the sequence - if they have it - of the environmental sample from the grate would be very good to have. Low Ct as Koopsman said there's a good chance they got sequence from it.
-
Just the fact that they got sequences at all from environmental samples (some of which they grow in culture) means that there was quite a bit of virus there. Hard to see how this much virus comes from probably more or less healthyhumans taking a stroll in the market to pick up some food for dinner.
-
shared file(s): Screen Shot 2021-03-15 at 10.28.45 am.png
-
Under this scenario it's impossible to disprove anything.
-
Agreed - but as far as the rainbow goes you've got to be kidding - I talked to an NBC reporter - Denise Chow -last week for about an hour wherein I used the term "lab magic." Chow's credible and actually one of the two NBC reporters that were allowed to visit WIV last year. Chow - not a lab leak fan by any means. Pretty sure she was goingto talk to Alina though - I dunno - I might have mentioned Alina was an idiot or something to that effect.
-
The question ought to be 'what evidence would proponents of the lab escape theory accept as disproving lab escape?'
-
SC2 in an animal should do it. Having a virus positive environmental sample from under a cage is damn close. No other way that virus could have gotten there except from the animals in the cage.
-
Need to think a bit more about the lineage A and B conundrum, but I think that too is consistent. Closer look at the Market associated environmental and human sample sequences in the context of the smoking dog will be revealing Ithink.
-
I've been very careful not to mention the smoking dog to any reporters yet, but looking forward to the opportunity when the report is dropped.
-
I agree - that you would do it. I would they accept any positive SC2 in an animal? Yes, best not mention the smoking dog yet...