Gates Package — page 889

I turned to a favorite tactic that I've been relying on for years: the working dinner. You don't bother with an agenda; you simply bring together a dozen or so smart people, provide the food and drinks, tee up a few questions, and let them start thinking out loud. I've had some of the best conversations of my working life with a fork in my hand and a napkin in my lap. On February 9, I sent an email about scheduling something for that Friday night: "We could try and do a dinner with the people involved with coronavirus work to touch base." Conscious of the date, I added: "It is Valentine's Day, so I wouldn't want to mess up anyone's plans for that at short notice." That Friday, a dozen experts from the foundation and other organizations came to my office outside Seattle for dinner. Over short ribs and salads, we turned to that key question: Would COVID-19 turn into a pandemic? My optimism, I learned that night, was unwarranted. The numbers were simply not in humanity's favor. Especially because COVID-19 spread through the air--making it more transmissible than, say, a virus that is spread through contact, like HIV or Ebola--there was little to no chance of containing it to one country or even one continent. Within a few months, millions of people all over the world would have contracted this disease, and inevitably millions would die from it. I was struck that governments weren't more concerned about this looming disaster. I asked, "Why aren't governments taking urgent action?" One scientist on the team, a South African researcher who came to our foundation after a distinguished career at Emory University, simply said: "They should be." ***