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dgnize the ote finds you well. To: Fauci, Anthony (NIH/NIAID) [E] @niaid.nih.gov> Cc: Larry Cohen @gatesventures.com>; Ian Saunders @gatesventures.com>; Josh Daniel @gatesventures.com> Subject: [EXTERNAL] My new book "How to Prevent the Next Pandemic" CAUTION: This email originated from outside of the organization. Do not click links or open attachments unless you recognize the sender and are confident the content is safe. Tony, Happy New Year! I hope this note finds you well. I have been working on a book entitled "How to Prevent the Next Pandemic" - and I am getting ready to submit it to the publisher. It would mean a lot to me if you would be able to find time to look it over before I submit. I will be curious to hear your ideas for improving it, especially chapter 9, which is the plan I am proposing for the world. It may be too much to ask, but if you had time to look over the book before this Sunday the 9th, it would allow me to incorporate your thoughts into the manuscript I submit. Even if you don't have time this week, I would appreciate any thoughts you have at any time. The book is scheduled to be released on May 3, 2022. Bill a <~?~Recto page a is blank.> Peter Rinearson) (with Collins Hemingway) b Also by Bill Gates The Road Ahead (with Nathan Myhrvold and Peter Rinearson) Business @ the Speed of Thought (with Collins Hemingway) How to Avoid a Climate Disaster i How to Prevent the Next Pandemic ii <~?~Verso page ii is blank.> iii How to Prevent the Next Pandemic Bill Gates <~?~Insert colophon.> Alfred A. Knopf, New York . KNOPF AND ALFRED A. KNOPF CANADA linrandomhouse.ca iv THIS IS A BORZOI BOOK PUBLISHED BY ALFRED A. KNOPF AND ALFRED A. KNOPF CANADA Copyright © 2022 Bill Gates All rights reserved. Published in the United States by Alfred A. Knopf, a division of Penguin Random House LLC, New York, and in Canada by Alfred A. Knopf Canada, a division of Penguin Random House Canada Limited, Toronto. www.aaknopf.com www.penguinrandomhouse.ca Knopf, Borzoi Books, and the colophon are registered trademarks of Penguin Random House LLC. Knopf Canada and colophon are trademarks of Penguin Random House Canada Ltd. <~?~Permissions, if any, TK.> <~?~CIP data TK.> Jacket photograph by TK Jacket design by TK Manufactured in the United States of America First Edition v Dedication TK? vi <~?~Verso page vi is blank. vii Contents Introduction Chapter 1: Learn from COVID Chapter 2: Create a pandemic prevention team Chapter 3: Get better at detecting outbreaks early Chapter 4: Help people protect themselves right away Chapter 5: Find new treatments fast Chapter 6: Get ready to make vaccines Chapter 7: Practice, practice, practice Chapter 8: Go after malaria, HIV, and TB too Chapter 9: Make a plan for preventing pandemics Afterword: How COVID changed the course of our digital future Acknowledgments Notes Index viii <~?~>Verso page viii is blank.> How to Prevent the Next Pandemic <~?~Verso page 2 is blank.> <~?~Commence Introduction> Introduction I was having dinner on Valentine's Day 2020 when I realized that COVID-19 would become a global disaster. For several weeks, I had been talking with experts at the Gates Foundation about a new respiratory disease that was circulating in China. We're lucky to have a team of world-class people with decades of experience in tracking, treating, and preventing infectious diseases, and they were following COVID-19 closely. We had already committed several million dollars in grants to help keep the virus out of Africa, where it could devastate countries that were already struggling. Our working assumption was: We hope this virus won't go global, but we have to assume it will until we know otherwise. At that point, there was still reason to believe that the virus could be contained within China. The government had taken unprecedented safety measures to lock down Wuhan--schools and public places were closed and citizens were issued permission cards that allowed them to leave their home every other day for thirty minutes at a time.1 And the virus was still limited enough that countries were letting people travel freely. I had flown to South Africa in early February for a charity tennis match. When I got back from South Africa, it had been a few weeks since we'd had an in-depth conversation about COVID at the foundation. There was one central question I could not stop thinking about and wanted to explore at length: Was I right to hope that COVID-19 could be contained, or would it go global? I turned to a favorite tactic that I've been relying on for years: the working dinner. You don't bother with an agenda; you simply bring together a dozen or so smart people, provide the food and drinks, tee up a few questions, and let them start thinking out loud. I've had some of the best conversations of my working life with a fork in my hand and a napkin in my lap. On February 9, I sent an email about scheduling something for that Friday night: "We could try and do a dinner with the people involved with coronavirus work to touch base." Conscious of the date, I added: "It is Valentine's Day, so I wouldn't want to mess up anyone's plans for that at short notice." That Friday, a dozen experts from the foundation and other organizations came to my office outside Seattle for dinner. Over short ribs and salads, we turned to that key question: Would COVID-19 turn into a pandemic? My optimism, I learned that night, was unwarranted. The numbers were simply not in humanity's favor. Especially because COVID-19 spread through the air--making it more transmissible than, say, a virus that is spread through contact, like HIV or Ebola--there was little to no chance of containing it to one country or even one continent. Within a few months, millions of people all over the world would have contracted this disease, and inevitably millions would die from it.