Tony's Diary Package — page 500

ts ant 10/1,400,000; USA -- 29 November 2020 There are 27 etates in the red zone and 11 states in erange rene and C4 included in the packet theugh testing in yellow zone Gata will be unstable including fatalities due to reporting delays -- but hospital mew admissions should be real time and I will be tracking those carefully --although still rising the rate of rise is decreasing. Current inpatients with COVID approaching 100,000 We will fully seo the impact of Thanksgiving travel and gathering in 2 weeks as we should have peaked and should have decline There are now 29 States in the red and orange forhospitalizations of GOVID cases -- care deteriorates morces all patients with and without COVID when states enter the red zone -- there are mone states in this category everyday We need to make it clear that choices (state and metro poboy choices and personal choices) will drive a post Thanksgiving sume because of the gerlying high viral Koad that will be an overwhelming Cheat 00 the health care system, Many states are currently madequatety mitigating mcluding sunbelt states that mitigated well in the summer, Aggressive mitigation meeds to occur mow to prevent 4 cataclemic Holiday season for the hoapital syitems, CFR and desthe/1M population wil correlate with level of mitigation. The mitigation choices stated make yall correlate with level of fatalities. Iti wat to late with the Holla coming to change. The impact of these choices on humec lite will be very evident. Current imGryemenis ane seen in 1-2 states agerestively mitipaling and it will be very evident over the newt 60 daws That mitigation saved fives and lack Of ralgation resulted in uinecessary high lateliies - Sates not mitipeting will ach population OFA equal to the Sprig sunk when lreelment wad suboptinial - WO, $0, MT -- sleles must be ercouraped to advance polices Cheat malggation ageing his Fall viral sure We Found the friends and farily small gatherings driving hospitalizations during the state visits hut those drivers agpeaned in the Sunbelt after the states Fully niitigated inthe public spaces -- including significant reducing cagacity or chosing spams where masks cannest be wenn Furope countries with clear policies are improving rapidty with aggressive containment with mitigating policies and clear oomenunécationm and are concfully reogening We were beginning to smo signs of decreases in the cate of rise of hospitalizations but a post Thanksgiving surge ontop ofaearly 100,00 inpatients will prone us towards 450,000 deaths as the Fall surge mows into winter ifwe can't both mitigate in public spaces and convinee Americans of the danger = convincing Governors and Mayors now to mitigate gost Thanksgiving and pre-Holidays is essential Got call from Ron Klain tonight at 5:15 PM. He wanted to fill me in on recent appointments (not announced yet) to make sure that I am OK with them: Josh Sharfstein (FDA), Vivek Murthy (Surgeon General), Rochelle Walensky (CDC), Jeff Zients (COVID-19 Czar), Gina Raimondo (Secretary of HHS). Ron said that Biden wanted to call me soon but he did not want to compromise me with the Trump people. They will clear with Meadows that the transition team can start getting in place and then Biden will call me. Got call last night from Mark Ghaly (Deputy Director for Community Health for the LA County Dept of Health Services). He has called me several times for advice. Frantic call saying that they are surging in LA County and very soon hospital beds will be overrun. He wants to do a 3 weeks shutdown of the city to "stop the surge" and wants my support since there is a large pushback to locking down. I agreed to support him. November 29, 2020 - Global - 61,900,000/1,400,000; USA - 13,100,000/266,000 Now at end of Thanksgiving weekend. Expect further surges (Birx's daily report):