Tony's Diary Package — page 421

1. 2. 3. 4, 22 October 2020 Rapid viral spread in both urban and rural counties continues and these new cases are filling hospitals in urban and rural areas making load balancing difficult significantly straining the hospital system -- we are 1-2 weeks from escalating fatalities. It will be critical to ensure that the North East, CA, TX, FL hold during this surge but there are early upticks across TX, FL metrosand across the Sunbelt, All-time record high numbers of cases expected tomorrow or next week and test positivity and hospitalizations continue to rise making it clear there is diffuse community spread and not testing -- current testing and Ag tests have not been aligned to detect the silent spread as universities have done -- Universities with routine required weekly testing has allowed universities to find the asymptomatic cases and isolated those cases quickly and dramatically decrease "community" spread among students -- the same approach can work at the community level... Across the North East and upper Midwest previously stable cities are seeing increases, Philly, CHI, Detroit. Daily hospital admissions are higher than summer peak (summer surge lead to 100K fatalities). Fatalities are increasing in IL, QH, PA, WI, MN This is not due to increased testing (many states have decreased testing rates) but broad and ever increasing community spread. There are no states, regions, or communities with enough priar COVID infection to provide any substantial protection fram new community spread which will lead to hospitalizations and fatalities. This is very evident by the rising cases again across the Sunbelt and moving inta the North East. This sequence of events must stop with the initial silent spread with aggressive sentinel surveillance testing. Aggressive testing in the contagious but asymptomatic population with isolation effectively contained and mitigated prior to infection of the more vulnerable community members. Providing appropriate isolation options for infected individuals from multigeneration households will be key. We have found from careful analysis, modelling and triangulation of all the data that community spread can be controlled without a lockdown as we have done but the time to act is critical and must be with the original detection of the silent spread, ensuring infected individuals know how ta limit their infection of others and with messaging on universal masking, physical distancing, and essential limitation of public and private gatherings indoors especially small gatherings with friends and family. Consistent messaging about masks, physical distancing and hand washing with limitation on indoor gatherings especially with family and friendsis essential at this time point -- this is about empowerment Americans with the knowledge and data for decision making. - 8,500,000/223,400 PRESS: MSNBC - Chuck Todd - Meet the Press Daily; BBC TV Andrew Marr Show; CNN with Erin Burnett October 24, 2020 Global - 42,100,000/1,100,000; USA - 8,500,000/223,400 Much discussion in the press that the outbreak is out of control as we enter the cooler months. POTUS keeps saying that we are "turning the corner" and this will be under control very soon. Press pitting this against what I and other credible scientists are saying.