Tony's Diary Package — page 411

18 October 2020 See slide 4 -- this is the most diffuse community spread we have experienced and we are 1-2 weeks from these new cases rapidly filling state hospitals and straining their system and 2-3 weeks from escalating fatalities. 31 states with increasing test positivity (the most we have ever had), 28 states with red zone number of cases/100,000 and many with a log phase rate of rise, 29 states with increasing daily hospital admissions, 21 states with rising fatalities. ER room visits for CLI are increasing in many regions. We are on the same slope as the summer surge but at a much higher baseline of infection 36K vs 21K which will lead to potentially 80K cases/day rapidly. With current case rate expansion we will achieve the greatest number of daily cases since the pandemic began in the week or two. We are now seeing concerning trends in the Sunbelt in states that stopped most of their mitigation efforts 2 -- 3 weeks ago This is not due to increased testing but broad and ever increasing community. There are no states, regions, or communities with enough prior COVID infection to provide any substantial protection from new community spread which will lead to hospitalizations and fatalities. This sequence of events must stop with the initial silent spread that can be effectively contained and mitigated. We have found from careful analysis, modelling and triangulation of all the data that community spread can be controlled without a lockdown as we have done but the time to act is critical and must be with the original detection of the silent spread, ensuring infected individuals know how to limit their infection of others and with messaging on universal masking, physical distancing, and essential limitation of public and private gatherings indoors. The Administration must use this moment to ask all the American people to wear masks, physical distance, avoid crowds and gatherings in both public and private spaces and protecting their vulnerable family members. One Consistent Message. https://bit.ly/37jp8fs Baby Blues by Jerry Scott and Rick Kirkman Hilarious song about mask wearing: https://bit.ly/37jp8fs Not allowed on any shows. Meet the Press and Face the Nation asked for me. WH gave Alex Azar to Meet the Press