Tony's Diary Package — page 373

29 September 2020 Uncontrolled diffuse community spread in MIN, WI, ND, SO and Heartland 14, KS, NE, OK, MO where hospitalizations are rising fatalities will cantinue te increase across these regions New hospitalizations are rising throughout the Heartland and Upper Midwest which will drive increase in fatalities over the next 3 weeks, Tribal Nations fram these regions will drive substantial hospitalizations and fatalities This diffuse spread is not solely university driven but most likely post Labor Day, end of vacations with silent spreading over the past 2-3 weeks through asymptomatic spread similar te past Memorial Day (that was undetected this time due te the change in CDC guidance on testing and many states dramatically decreasing testing}: the majority of universities only testing symptomatic students with a tiny proportion of voluntary surveillance testing {except U of ILLand Clemson} Will be key to increase testing in the communities and states where hospitalizations are rising, where test positivity is rising and in communities where universities have more than 10% of their total student body COVID19 infected - see slides 4 and 5 --there are substantial declines in symptomatic positive students detected at the SEC schools by week S with strong mitigations at the schools and good student compliance with mitigations that may erode over the semester This first several tranches of BINAX to states should be prioritized to states with high community spread Florida and Texas have low testing rates and continued high mortality +100 deaths/day -- testing needs to increase significantly before reversal of mitigation efforts Florida has significant residual disease and daily cases, reversing all mitigation efforts will result in rising cases in 2 weeks and rising hospitalizations in 3 weeks and rising mortality in 4 weeks -- the last week of October Daily New Deaths in the United States Daily Deaths Deaths per Day Data as of 0:00 GMT+8 Novel Coronavirus Daily Deaths PD bP DD OO PD DD a -- ae Pr oa a a a we wt ft w a a oF a e wy aoe a a a) fy a ens ey "a "a © Dally Deaths ( ®& F-day moving average = gy Global USA PRESS: The Texas Tribune Festival - Fireside Chat with Lawrence Wright (The New Yorker); Interview with Wall Street Journal - Caitlin McCabe. September 30, 2020 - Global USA