A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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September 26, 2020 - Major conflict between Deb and Atlas. See below with Deb's daily report. Atlas says that we do not need to test for asymptomatics since the only thing that counts is preventing vulnerable people from dying. He does not see the connection between asymptomatic young people (without hospitalization and deaths rising → older and vulnerable (with later hospitalization and deaths rising). We are heading to a major clash between deb/me/Bob versus Atlas 26 September 2020 1.Cases continue to increase in the Heartland and the upper Midwest and Northwest without any evidence of containment --no state outside of MN, WI, ND is adequately mitigating their community spread -- hospitalizations are rising across these states and fatalities will continue to increase across these regions 2.Hospital admissions for confirmed cases are rising at the National level driven by the Heartland and the North West -- ND, SD, MT, UT (significant increase in Tribal Nation infections in MT which will drive mortality and must be mitigated. Call with MT on Thursday was more directed at Administration rather than aggressive public health mitigation of community spread in Billings and among the Tribal Nations -- we need to try to get to UT (Provo) and MT 3,Most concerning is the rising confirmed hospitalizations in over 70 yo the most at risk for poor outcomes largely driven by community spread several weeks ago when we experience the large decline in testing and inability to see the early spread among younger groups and ability to contain the community spread before impacting the elderly. 4.\t will be key to return to the Heartland, WI, MN as well as UT and MT when possible to do a deep dive into the data and provide clear mitigation recommendations 5.1 have included the ILI data as requested. Slides 4-6. Because much of ILI is modelled a seen here it is insensitive as an early indicator, insensitive to rising hospitalizations or predictive of rising mortality. For the last surge where 100K person succumbed the entire time the country was under the threshold (slide 4) and states were at minimal to low levels through most of the surge in the summer --currently only IA is moderate but & states are equal to worse than IA related to hospitalization and deaths TRENDS IN CASE INCIDENCE DURING THE LAST 8 WEEKS Aare el . Hatherr Martens ines wero ee harigpre a: Ainge Hin Mortara orth Deed: Bieteicie Piece Whoo Richdgee Fee Terk Bode told MalGnttrsiern 7" I he a fll laa mel ce! I ema Rate per 109,000 Hareb Orage nah med teen aioe it bebana on Paeraypiena ad Hew Heid CoH population categories (based on bast 7 days} ie Det Na Laat ml ial bt cc! mm) sme! tc = Figure depict: average (iiiaesat se and en et te Lie wae I en B-week period of 7/30I I] Il Iv vy a soainiia seiamaiie Winnie Habeas O24. Vertical esis ranges a fram fo 450 eases per 100.000 progiulestigry (7 cley mo --_-- i. A Regions Confirmed Cases [Thousancs) New Daily Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. Day eee Day Mowing Avarage ) 26th, 2020, 12:28 pm TMI rm 0.6 's ot as an NIA Cot FP FoF oF TF FF SA -- 7,060,000/204,000 Jon LaPook has been wanting to do a 60 Minutes Special focused on me and Comms has been disking around without responding. Francis and I sent e-mails to Alyssa Farah and she apologized saying that she will approve 90% of requests for me and refuse ONLY those that are obviously politically charged. Up to this point, 95% of requests for me have be refused or ignored by the WH/HHS. They truly are dysfunctional even though I believe that Alyssa is a good person. Medai-Ite Joe Biden Promises to Hire Dr. Anthony Fauci 'Minutes After The Race Is Called'
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September 26, 2020 at 9:15am Share: Protestors outside 'fake news HQ RTÉ' last night seemed to think that top US doctor Anthony Fauci had flown in from DC especially for the show. PRESS: Sunday and still no show appearances - all turned down by HHS and/or WH. RAI TV live in Italy;
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September 27, 2020 - Global - 32,700,000/991,000; USA - 7,060,000/204,000 Confirmed Cases (Thousands) 27 September 2020 Uncentrolled diffuse community spread in MN, Wi, ND, $0 and Heartland 1A, RS, NE, OK, MO where hospitalizations are rising across these states and fatalities will continue ta increase across these regions -- slide 2 and 3 show rapid increase in test positivity in the orange states and rapidly rising cases, the stalling of any declines in new hespitalizations which will drive increase in fatalities over the next 3 weeks. This diffuse spread is not solely university driven but most likely post Labor Day, end of vacations bring infections back from vacation spots with silent spreading over the past 2-3 weeks through asymptomatic spread similar to post Memorial Day (that was undetected due to the change in CDC guidance on testing and many states dramatically decreasing testing) Will be key to increase testing in the communities and states where hospitalizations are rising, where test positivity is rising and in cammunities where universities have more than 10% of their total student body COVID19 infected It will be key ta return te the Heartland, WI, MM as well as UT and MT when possible ta do a deep dive into the data and provide clear mitigation recommendations -- this community spread must be contained before weather drives individuals indoors to stay warm and we have an explosion of cases, hospitalizations and mortality similar ta the southern surge when people came inside for cooling related to the heat in the South. Most concerning is the rising confirmed hospitalizations in over 70 yo the most at risk for poor outcomes largely driven by continued and increasing community spread several weeks ago when we experience the large decline in testing and inability to see the early spread among younger groups and ability to contain the community spread before impacting the elderly, Florida and Texas have low testing rates and continued high mortality >100 deaths/day -- testing meeds to increase significantly before reversal of mitigation efforts New Daily Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. _ Pil Fit! ._ y i' ; i . A i A A a0 y yf rs i ° Fa ee el Fy ' hy f A ba o a ry a a " & a] & i] A a . by te " o de i = # a = x z & ' Ad = a e f # e at z io a Pt i Oo) meee? Cay Mowang Avarage 4, Things really getting crazy. Irish thought that I was physically present in Dublin for the Late Late show interview (see above on Sept. 25) and they demonstrated against me: Protesters outside RTÉ last night were convinced top US doctor had flown in for the show Global USA
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September 28, 2020 - Global USA 28 September 2020 1.Uncontrolled diffuse community spread in MN, WI, ND, 50 and Heartland IA, KS, NE, OK, MO where hospitalizations are rising fatalities will continue to increase across these regions -- slide 2 show rapid increase in test positivity in the red and orange states and rapidly rising cases, the stalling of any declines in new hospitalizations which will drive increase in fatalities over the next 3 weeks. Also the impact on Tribal Nations will drive substantial hospitalizations and fatalities 2.Fatalities one day (sat) : the original summer surge states CA, FL, TX (258), AZ, M5, AL, LA, SC, GA, NC (184) totally 442 and declining currently the Heartland and upper Midwest and MT, ND, SD (100 and climbing) 3. This diffuse spread is not solely university driven but most likely post Labor Day, end of vacations with silent spreading over the past 2-3 weeks through asymptomatic spread similar to post Memorial Day (that was undetected this time due to the change in CDC guidance on testing and many states dramatically decreasing testing): all majority of universities only testing symptomatics 4.Will be key to increase testing in the communities and states where hospitalizations are rising, where test positivity is rising and in communities where universities have more than 10% of their total student body COVID19 infected 5.lt will be key to return to the Heartland, WI, MN as well as UT and MT when possible to do a deep dive into the data and provide clear mitigation recommendations -- this community spread must be contained before weather drives individuals indoors to stay warm and we have an explosion of cases, hospitalizations and mortality similar to the southern surge when people came inside for cooling related to the heat in the South. 6.Florida and Texas have low testing rates and continued high mortality >100 deaths/day -- testing needs to increase significantly before reversal of mitigation efforts 7. Florida has significant residual disease and daily cases, reversing all mitigation efforts will result in rising cases in 2 weeks and rising hospitalizations in 3 weeks and rising mortality in-4 weeks -- the last week of October Red states ellow states Light Green states Dark Green states (>10% positive) (5 - <8% positive ) I - <5% positive) (<3% positive) AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KY, AZ, CA, CO, DE, HI, IL, LA, ID, MT, NE, OK, SD, UT 1A, KS, MO, SC, WI MN, MS, NC, ND, NV, TN, MD, MI, OR, PA, WA, TX, VA WV, WY AK, CT, DC, MA, ME, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OH, RI, VT Dr. Fauci Top 20 Highly Cited Papers (Based on Web of Science, 09/28/2020) 1. Roberts AB, Sporn MB, Assoian RK, et al. "TRANSFORMING GROWTHFACTOR TYPE-BETA - RAPID INDUCTION OF FIBROSIS AND ANGIOGENESIS INVIVO AND STIMULATION OF COLLAGEN FORMATION INVITRO." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 1986;83(12):4167-4171. [2,613 citations] 2. Hoffman, G. S., G. S. Kerr, R. Y. Leavitt, C. W. Hallahan, R. S. Lebovics, W. D. Travis, M. Rottem, and A. S. Fauci. 1992. "Wegener Granulomatosis: An Analysis of 158 Patients." Annals of Internal Medicine 116 (6): 488-498. doi:10.7326/0003-4819-116-6-488. [2,060 citations] 3. Koenig, S., H. E. Gendelman, J. M. Orenstein, M. C. Dal Canto, G. H. Pezeshkpour, M. Yungbluth, F. Janotta, A. Aksamit, M. A. Martin, and A. S. Fauci. 1986. "Detection of AIDS Virus in Macrophages in Brain Tissue from AIDS Patients with Encephalopathy." Science 233 (4768): 1089-1093. doi:10.1126/science.3016903. [1,663 citations] 4. Pantaleo, G., C. Graziosi, J. F. Demarest, L. Butini, M. Montroni, C. H. Fox, J. M. Orenstein, D. P. Kotler, and A. S. Fauci. 1993. "HIV Infection is Active and Progressive in Lymphoid Tissue during the Clinically Latent Stage of Disease." Nature 362 (6418): 355-358. doi:10.1038/362355a0. [1,649 citations] 5. Fauci, A. S., B. F. Haynes, P. Katz, and S. M. Wolff. 1983. "Wegener's Granulomatosis: Prospective Clinical and Therapeutic Experience with 85 Patients for 21 Years." Annals of Internal Medicine 98 (1): 76-85. doi:10.7326/0003-4819-98-1-76.. [1,646 citations] 6. Hunder, G. G., D. A. Bloch, B. A. Michel, M. B. Stevens, W. P. Arend, L. H. Calabrese, S. M. Edworthy, et al. 1990. "The American College of Rheumatology 1990 Criteria for the Classification of Giant Cell Arteritis." Arthritis & Rheumatism 33 (8): 1122-1128. doi:10.1002/art.1780330810. [1,609 citations] 7. Lane, H. C., H. Masur, L. C. Edgar, G. Whalen, A. H. Rook, and A. S. Fauci. 1983. "Abnormalities of B-Cell Activation and Immunoregulation in Patients with the Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome." New England Journal of Medicine 309 (8): 453-458. doi:10.1056/NEJM198308253090803. [1,579 citations] 8. Kehrl, J. H., L. M. Wakefield, A. B. Roberts, S. Jakowlew, M. Alvarez-Mon, R. Derynck, M. B. Sporn, and A. S. Fauci. 1986. "Production of Transforming Growth Factor β by Human T Lymphocytes and its Potential Role in the Regulation of T Cell Growth." Journal of Experimental Medicine 163 (5): 1037-1050. doi:10.1084/jem.163.5.1037. [1,559 citations] 9. Fauci, A. S. 1988. "The Human Immunodeficiency Virus: Infectivity and Mechanisms of Pathogenesis." Science 239 (4840): 617-622. doi:10.1126/science.3277274. [1,523 citations] 10.Leavitt, R. Y., A. S. Fauci, D. A. Bloch, B. A. Michel, G. G. Hunder, W. P. Arend, L. H. Calabrese, et al. 1990. "The American College of Rheumatology 1990 Criteria for the Classification of Wegener's Granulomatosis." Arthritis & Rheumatism 33 (8): 1101-1107. doi:10.1002/art.1780330807. [1,392 citations] 11.Chun, T. -W, L. Stuyver, S. B. Mizell, L. A. Ehler, J. A. M. Mican, M. Baseler, A. L. Lloyd, M. A. Nowak, and A. S. Fauci. 1997. "Presence of an Inducible HIV-1 Latent Reservoir during Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 94 (24): 13193-13197. doi:10.1073/pnas.94.24.13193. [1,317 citations] 12.Masi, A. T., G. G. Hunder, J. T. Lie, B. A. Michel, D. A. Bloch, W. P. Arend, L. H. Calabrese, et al. 1990. "The American College of Rheumatology 1990 Criteria for the Classification of churg-strauss Syndrome (Allergic Granulomatosis and Angiitis)." Arthritis & Rheumatism 33 (8): 1094-1100. doi:10.1002/art.1780330806. [1,287 citations] 13.Fauci, A. S., B. F. Haynes, and P. Katz. 1978. "The Spectrum of Vasculitis. Clinical, Pathologic, Immunologic, and Therapeutic Considerations." Annals of Internal Medicine 89 (5 I): 660-676. doi:10.7326/0003-4819-89-5-660. [1,272 citations] 14.Arend, W. P., B. A. Michel, D. A. Bloch, G. G. Hunder, L. H. Calabrese, S. M. Edworthy, A. S. Fauci, et al. 1990. "The American College of Rheumatology 1990 Criteria for the Classification of Takayasu Arteritis." Arthritis & Rheumatism 33 (8): 1129-1134. doi:10.1002/art.1780330811. [1,234 citations] 15.Kerr, G. S., C. W. Hallahan, J. Giordano, R. Y. Leavitt, A. S. Fauci, M. Rottem, and G. S. Hoffman. 1994. "Takayasu Arteritis." Annals of Internal Medicine 120 (11): 919-929. doi:10.7326/0003-4819-120-11-199406010-00004. [1,111 citations] 16.Pantaleo G, Graziosi C, Fauci AS. THE IMMUNOPATHOGENESIS OF HUMANIMMUNODEFICIENCY-VIRUS INFECTION. New England Journal of Medicine. 1993;328(5):327-335. [946 citations] 17.Fauci AS, Dale DC, Balow JE. GLUCOCORTICOSTEROID THERAPY - MECHANISMS OF ACTION AND CLINICAL CONSIDERATIONS. Annals of Internal Medicine. 1976;84(3):304-315. [931 citations] 18.Morens, D. M., G. K. Folkers, and A. S. Fauci. 2004. "The Challenge of Emerging and Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases." Nature 430 (6996): 242249. doi:10.1038/nature02759. [899 citations] 19.Fauci AS, Macher AM, Longo DL, et al. ACQUIRED IMMUNODEFICIENCY SYNDROME - EPIDEMIOLOGIC, CLINICAL, IMMUNOLOGICAL, AND THERAPEUTIC CONSIDERATIONS. Annals of Internal Medicine. 1984;100(1):92-106. [887 citations] A -- 7,100,000/205,000 20.Folks TM, Justement J, Kinter A, Dinarello CA, Fauci AS. CYTOKINE-INDUCED EXPRESSION OF HIV-1 IN A CHRONICALLY INFECTED PROMONOCYTE CELLLINE. Science. 1987;238(4828):800-802. [872 citations] PRESS: Good Morning America TV; The Netherlands TV - Nieuwsuur; Canadian Journalism Foundation World News Day with Brian Stelter (Web TV); Steph Curry - State of Inspiration Interview; Aspen Institute - Fireside Chat with Helen Clark former PM of New Zealand
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2020-09-29 00:00
Anthony S. Fauci
September 29, 2020 - Global - 33,200,000/1,000,000; USA - 7,100,000/205,000 Cases increasing in certain regions (see below). Hospitalization starting to creep up. Deaths will follow. Total deaths have plateaued and so as deaths go down in certain regions, which is true, deaths that increase in other regions result in a net flat curve. Again, today big dispute between Deb (backed by me) and Atlas. Atlas feels that after a city/town/state reach their peak, the turn around has nothing to do with any intervention that we apply. He insists that the city/state has reached herd immunity. He also cherry picks papers on T cell immunity and says that cross-reacting T cell immunity accounts for: the 22% ab positive in NYC + 25 % T cell immunity = herd immunity. He feels that all we need to do in protect the vulnerables in nursing homes and we will be OK. No need to test and no need to worry about community spread. 1st Presidential Debate tonight. Horrible "shit show". Trump was embarrassing, continually interrupting Biden, bullying all the way, making no sense, lying. Moderator Chris Wallace could not control him. Trump refused to denounce White Supremacists and when asked about the "Proud Boys", Trump said" "Stand down, stand by" essentially endorsing them. Alos, he misquoted me saying that I am against masks. He also said that I praised him for saving lives by shutting down China travel. Reporters (Chris Cuomo, Jim Sciutto, Maggie Fox, etc) continually texting me during the debate wanting me to counter what he said about me and masks 29 September 2020 Uncontrolled diffuse community spread in MIN, WI, ND, SO and Heartland 14, KS, NE, OK, MO where hospitalizations are rising fatalities will cantinue te increase across these regions New hospitalizations are rising throughout the Heartland and Upper Midwest which will drive increase in fatalities over the next 3 weeks, Tribal Nations fram these regions will drive substantial hospitalizations and fatalities This diffuse spread is not solely university driven but most likely post Labor Day, end of vacations with silent spreading over the past 2-3 weeks through asymptomatic spread similar te past Memorial Day (that was undetected this time due te the change in CDC guidance on testing and many states dramatically decreasing testing}: the majority of universities only testing symptomatic students with a tiny proportion of voluntary surveillance testing {except U of ILLand Clemson} Will be key to increase testing in the communities and states where hospitalizations are rising, where test positivity is rising and in communities where universities have more than 10% of their total student body COVID19 infected - see slides 4 and 5 --there are substantial declines in symptomatic positive students detected at the SEC schools by week S with strong mitigations at the schools and good student compliance with mitigations that may erode over the semester This first several tranches of BINAX to states should be prioritized to states with high community spread Florida and Texas have low testing rates and continued high mortality +100 deaths/day -- testing needs to increase significantly before reversal of mitigation efforts Florida has significant residual disease and daily cases, reversing all mitigation efforts will result in rising cases in 2 weeks and rising hospitalizations in 3 weeks and rising mortality in 4 weeks -- the last week of October Daily New Deaths in the United States Daily Deaths Deaths per Day Data as of 0:00 GMT+8 Novel Coronavirus Daily Deaths PD bP DD OO PD DD a -- ae Pr oa a a a we wt ft w a a oF a e wy aoe a a a) fy a ens ey "a "a © Dally Deaths ( ®& F-day moving average = gy Global USA PRESS: The Texas Tribune Festival - Fireside Chat with Lawrence Wright (The New Yorker); Interview with Wall Street Journal - Caitlin McCabe.
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September 30, 2020 - Global USA 30 September 2020 1.As predicted : rising cases would lead to new admissions, rising inpatient numbers and increasing fatalities. 2.Uncontrolled diffuse community spread in MN, WI, ND, SD and Heartland IA, KS, NE, OK, MO where hospitalizations are rising and fatalities will continue to increase across these regions : as there is insufficient mitigation --low mask wearing, low physical distancing and inadequate protection of community vulnerable persons : LTCF aggressively being protected 3. Tribal Nations from these regions will drive substantial hospitalizations and fatalities 4. This diffuse spread is not solely university driven but most likely post Labor Day, end of vacations with silent spreading over the past 2-3 weeks through asymptomatic spread similar to post Memorial Day (that was undetected this time due to the change in CDC guidance on testing and many states dramatically decreasing testing): the majority of universities only testing symptomatic students with a tiny proportion of voluntary surveillance testing (except U of ILL and Clemson) 5. Will be key to increase testing in the communities and states where hospitalizations are rising, where test positivity is rising and in communities 6. This first several tranches of BINAX to states should be prioritized to states with high community spread 7.Florida and Texas have low testing rates and continued high mortality >100 deaths/day -- testing needs to increase significantly before reversal of mitigation efforts (CA, TX, CA contributed >350 deaths/day) 8.Florida has significant residual disease and daily cases, reversing the majority of mitigation efforts will result in rising cases in 2 weeks and rising hospitalizations in 3 weeks and rising mortality in 4 weeks -- the last week of October iterviewed with ice trend; New Yorker >on masks. Addressed the Congressional Hispanic Caucus on COVID-19 led by Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX) and Rep Escobar. Addressed State, local and Tribal Officials on COVID-19 Presented plenary to American Academy of Pediatrics Addressed Quad Caucus together with Francis PRESS: Wired TV with Steven Levy; ABC Podcast; Interviewed with Washington Post (Joel Achenbach) regarding anti-Science trend; New Yorker Interview NY Times: Fauci counters Trump for misrepresenting his stance on masks. Anthony Fauci, director of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at NIH, attaches his mask before testifying at a Senate Health, Education, and Labor and Pensions Committee on Capitol Hill.Credit...Pool photo by Graeme Jennings Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the country's leading official on infectious diseases, hit back at Mr. Trump on Wednesday for what he called the misrepresentation of Dr. Fauci's stance on masks to curb coronavirus outbreaks. In the first presidential debate Tuesday, Mr. Trump claimed that Dr. Fauci initially said during the pandemic "masks are not good. Then he changed his mind." And responding to former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.'s assertion that wearing masks could save tens of thousands of lives, Mr. Trump also contended that "Dr. Fauci said the opposite." "Anybody who has been listening to me over the last several months know that a conversation does not go by where I do not strongly recommend that people wear masks," Dr. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said during an interview on ABC News's "Start Here" podcast. The full interview can be heard tomorrow, ABC said. Dr. Fauci explained that "very early on in the pandemic" authorities initially did not recommend masks in the context of concerns over shortages and hoarding of masks. Dr. Fauci also emphasized that he has clearly been urging people for months to wear masks when it became clear that asymptomatic transmission was spreading the virus, that 1 October 2020 1. Using Wi as an illustration --slide 5: rising test positivity in the 18-25 age group leads ta increasing test positivity in older age group approximately 2-3 weeks later that then drives new admissions, rising inpatient numbers and increasing fatalities -- preventing that initial wave in areas where other factors - weather deteriaration driving mare inside, decreasing humidity and crowding indoors will be key to prevent further fatalities, 2. Uncontrolled diffuse community spread in MN, WI, ND, SD and Heartland 14, KS, NE, OK, MO where hospitalizations and fatalities are rising and will continue to increase across these regions : as there is insufficient mitigation -- low mask wearing, low physical distancing and inadequate protection of vulnerable persons in community and weather driving communities indoors : LICF aggressively being protected but uncontrolled community spread leads to infection of the vulnerable members of the community -- hespitalization and fatalities 3. Tribal Nations from these regions will drive substantial hospitalizations and fatalities 4. This diffuse spread is not solely university driven but most likely post Labor Day, end of vacations with silent spreading over the past 2-3 weeks through asymptomatic spread similar to post Memorial Day (that was undetected this time due to the change in CDC guidance on testing and many states dramatically decreasing testing): the majority of universities only testing symptomatic students with a tiny prepertion of voluntary surveillance testing (except U of ILL and Clemson) 5. Will be key to increase testing in the communities and states where test positivity is rising to prevent further community spread to prevent increases in hospitalizations and fatalities 6. This first several tranches of BINAX to states should be prioritized to states with high community spread Red states Dark Green states (>10% positive) (<3% positive) AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KY, AZ, CA, CO, DE, HI, IL, LA, ID, MT, NE, OK, SD, UT 1A, KS, MO, SC, WI MN, MS, NC, ND, NV, TN, I MD, MI, OR, PA, WA, RCT: DS BES TE: AE TX, VA WV, WY NJ, NM, NY, OH, RI, VT there was no shortage of surgical masks and that masks are effective at stopping the spread of the virus. "I have been on the airways, on the radio, on TV, begging people to wear masks," Dr. Fauci said. "And I keep talking in the context of wear a mask, keep physical distance, avoid crowds, wash your hands and do things more outdoors versus indoors." -- Simon Romero
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October 1, 2020 Hope Hicks is infected!!! PRESS: The National Press Club - NFID - Influenza Press Conference; The Tight Rope with Tricia Rose and Cornell West Journalist Michael Specter examines Fauci's career and the challenges of facing COVID-19 with Trump's White House in his new audiobook "Fauci," the first biography to be published on the doctor. Specter writes that he first met Fauci in 1986. Even then, Fauci was a mainstay in both the political and medical communities. He has since served with every U.S. president since Ronald Reagan. MICHAEL SPECTER -g Cc w = a Pd
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October 2, 2020 --- Global -- 34,200,000/1,000,000; USA -- 7,300,000/207,300 I was very close to VP on Tuesday, Sept. 29. VP is negative today. Melania also positive. Media frenzy! Tjust got tested via NIH today -- negative. . Thad called Sean Conley and told him that this is what I would do. He agreed. Treached out again to Sean Conley to help again. No response. WH really shutting down comms with outside world. Kellyanne Conway, RNC Chair and two senators ( Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina and Senator Mike Lee), Republican of Utah) infected plus Bill Stepien (Trump's Campaign manager); all were at the Rose Garden ceremony for Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett. It appears that this ceremony was a super-spreading event since all infected people were there and the timing is perfect L.Uncontrolled diffuse community spread in MN, WI, ND, SD and Heartland IA, KS, NE, OK, MO where hospitalizations and fatalities are rising and will continue to increase across these regions : as there is insufficient mitigation -- low mask wearing, low physical distancing and inadequate protection of vulnerable persons in community and weather driving communities indoors : LTCF aggressively being protected but uncontrolled community spread leads to infection of the vulnerable members of the community ~ hospitalization and fatalities 2.Tribal Nations from these regions will drive substantial hospitalizations and fatalities 3. The overarching concern relates to the balance of personal mitigation behaviors and the weather driving more activities indoors with the lower humidity increasing the K value (dispersion factor) with lower humidity the droplets partially evaporate allowing for longer suspension in the air and together -- poor personal mitigation and cooling weather with heating will increase the R value 4.Any baseline immunity in the population (ranging from 5-10%) in all states except NYC area and Miami FL can be offset and overcome by this weather element and increased indoor activities -- this is the concern about continued spread in states where the weather is changing (cooling) and the need for immediate mitigation actions by the leadership and the public collectively : conversely the improved weather across the south with movement outdoors from air conditioning will lower both R1 and decrease dispersion (K) ~ 5.tThere also needs to be careful proactive attention to the NE ~ planned travel there starting Monday 6.This diffuse spread is not solely university driven but most likely post Labor Day, end of vacations with silent spreading over the past 2-3 weeks through asymptomatic spread similar to post Memorial Day (that was undetected this time due to the change in CDC guidance on testing and many states dramatically decreasing testing): the majority of universities only testing symptomatic students with a tiny proportion of voluntary surveillance testing (except U of ILL and Clemson) 7.Will be key to increase testing in the communities and states where test positivity is rising to prevent further community spread to prevent increases in hospitalizations and fatalities 8.This first several tranches of BINAX to states should be prioritized to states with high community spread PRESS: Getting scores of calls from press and request to appear on every show. White House has indicated no press of any type until further notice. They do not want me or other government docs out there until further notice. -7,300,000/208, New Daily Confirmed COVID-19 Cases In the U.S. Confirmed Cases {Thousareds| a ae A he am "a AN h \ hs is / UAT ij F Fd f aan Fa ~ peti f pt I Fa A by Th mH oy y wt a we a te rey Aca i ay ate al i] fa Pa a hie} eS 3 es 2 t ' & a oS & n * : ef @ e = sg 6g a a mee Ciaiky ee 7 oy Mowing Avarage TY SI US La a Ie UU E WUee PR SS Py ck WE Ge ee a . L gressively being protected but uncontrolled community spread leads to infection of the vulnerable members of the cormmunity-- spitalization and fatalities -- states and metros of concern (slides 14-37) iprovements in AR where mitigation efforts are strong and continuing intinued spread in NC-- this is the one state where 3 large universities went on line after opening leaving 90K students living in é college towns but without a anchor to their campus potentially leading to more community spread bal Nations from these regions will drive substantial hospitalizations and fatalities i@ overarching concern relates to the balance of personal mitigation behaviors and the weather driving more activities indoors th the lower humidity increasing the K value (dispersion factor) with lower humidity the droplets partially evaporate allowing for ager suspension In the air and together -- poor personal mitigation and cooling weather with heating will increase the R value 1y baseline immunity in the population (ranging fromm <1-10%3) in all states except LA, NY, NJ (where mortality was 3-4X all other ates) can be offset and overcame by this weather element and increased indoor activities -- this is the concern about continued read in states where the weather is changing (cooling) and the need for immediate mitigation actions by the leadership and the iblic collectively : conversely the improved weather across the south with movement outdoors from air conditioning will lower ith Rl and decrease dispersion (K) -- i@ré also needs to be careful proactive attention to the NE -- cases rising in NYC and Boston ill be key to increase testing in the communities and states where test positivity is rising to prevent further community spread to event increases in hospitalizations and fatalities 1is first several tranches of BINAX to states should be prioritized to states with high community spread Press (CNN) asking on air why Fauci and other TF members are not be able to speak.
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October 3, 2020 - Global - 34,500,000/1,000,000; USA - 7,300,000/208,100 Red states Yellow states Light Green states I Dark Green states (>10% positive) (5 - <8% positive) I (3-<5% positive) (<3% positive) AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KY, AZ, CA, CO, DE, HI, IL, LA, ID, MT, NE, OK, SD, UT IA, KS, MO, SC, WI MN, MS, NC, ND, NV, TN, MD, MI, OR, PA, WA, NN a Ry On Re vy TX, VA WV, WY * e ae Science magazine: =) Global USA Sean Conley and the WR team are giving mixed messages about how well or not the POTUS is doing. Conley saying he is doing fine. Others saying his vital signs are troublesome, he is on oxygen and coughing with fever. His condition could be deteriorating. PRESS: In Science magazine: