A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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January 9, 2021 - Global - 87,600,000/1,900,000; USA - 22,000,000/368,000 The pandemic is getting more scary. Every day more and more cases and deaths. Patients in the hallways in California. Nurses and MDs exhausted. It seems that people are getting infected who are being careful and have no idea why they are getting infected. N501Y mutation is here in the USA, but it is not dominant. We may actually have out own mutant that we have not recognized since the CDC has not really been looking. ated and is ce the vaccine ration holds up. Had conversation this AM 12:10 PM to 12:50 PM with 2 reporters from Politico (Adam Cancryn and Tyler Pager). Call set up by T.J. Ducklo (see note about regarding call from Jeff Zients). See above regarding content of call. I convinced them that the Biden team is a good team and that the discontent is typical Washington, DC rumors. Interesting that someone associated with Biden campaign is already spreading damaging rumors about the team. Probably someone who wanted a place in the transition and is not satisfied with what was given to them. David Ho is doing tests on convalescent sera and sera of people who were vaccinated and is finding disturbing data in both the UK and worse in the RSA mutants. It looks like the vaccine might be compromised. We need to prepare to modify the vaccine if this observation holds up. Also, Peter Staley and James Kellerstein are writing an article for an OpEd to ask for the DPA to build a plant so that we can make unlimited amount of vaccine. Ewe can use this if we need to quickly do a strain change. Confirmed Canes (Thousands) au} 5i am 2m in} 2 tl mM fees er Fs -22,100,000/371,100 New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. he fay a) Peau ah rege gees seg atl| ( 'i iI itis " || wh mil ih UL th ge we iy Fy rire $F FL FISS fla, Tey 425, "Sq "24, 4g 2020/2021 Oo eee Oy Moving Average 0 eee) Dy Mowing Averogo historical record of A.S. Fauci - Part 3
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January 10, 2021 - Global - 88,400,000/1,900,000 USA - 22,100,000/371,100 And the surge goes on..... There is a real concern that we have our own mutant that is resulting in an increased surge in cases. People are saying they have no idea how they got infected since they have been observing public health recommendations. See below comments from Birx. After Thanksgiving the Northern Plains MN, IL, MI held and did not significantly deteriorate. In contrast this current post Holiday surge is causing deterioration in all metros including metros that were stable and metros that did not experience a significant post Thanksgiving surge. NYC has returned to case counts equal to the Spring recognizing we are testing at much higher rates but this surge is just beginning in NYC and with this current rate of rise of cases could drive significant cases, hospitalizations and deaths especially if it deteriorates at the rate of LA. Proactive setting up of infusion sites now is critical in all large metros and active immunization of those over 65. We have enough vaccine in the States to immunize nearly 15M senior which would be nearly 25% of all seniors over 65. We need to treat this current situation as the emergency it is. Deb Deb's report: 1. Reporting has stabilized and we have returned to the pre-thanksgiving rate of cases as the current resurgence moves into the populous states from CA to TX to FL and resume a full log phase rate 2. EVERY METRO over 500K residents is deteriorating except Honolulu. - even those that had been stable now have rising cases slides 6-52 : NYC area is now reached cases greater than the Spring surge 3. All of the most populous states are deteriorating or continuing to deteriorate - CA, TX, FL, NY - only CA maybe showing signs of reaching a high plateau - TX, FL, NY will become the new epicenter of this surge over the next 3 weeks - I believe we have had our own evolved and more transmissible strain or strains since September by reviewing all the epidemiologic data - this fall/winter has a more rapid rate of rise from the beginning which predated Thanksgiving and continues at the rate post the Holidays (slide 3) - this rate of rise is now independent of the weather as it is occurring across the South, LA, etc - the surge is more difficult to mitigate - which will require more aggressive action to control and all actions need to be taken now to flatten this curve and preserve the health system) Normally the weekly high for fatalities is Wednesday - deeply concerning that both Weds Thurs and now Friday have deaths near 4000/day See graphs on slide set below (frightening): 10Jan2021DataSum mary.pptx Major discussion among Congress in invoking the 25th Amendment to remove Trump. Pelosi is going to go ahead with impeachment proceedings even though there would be no time to convict, they can impeach. Several people in the White House and Cabinet are resigning - Elaine Chao, Matt Pottinger. POTUS is attacking Pence for not going along with his attempts to overthrow the election. Poor Pence. He had been so loyal, but I am pleased to see that the goodness that I recognized in him is coming out, albeit a bit late in the game. The crazies in the Trump following are calling for the execution of Pence, similar to Crazy Steve Bannon calling for my beheading. PRESS: WGN Radio (Steve Dale) - Chicago; Satire from The Borowitz Report Fauci Says Immunity from Trump Requires Two Doses of Impeachment itz 12,300,000/373,200
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January 11, 2021 - Global - 88,800,000/1,900,000; USA - 22,300,000/373,200 Surge continues unabated. Deb's notes: 1. Reporting has stabilized and we have returned to the rapid prethanksgiving rate of cases as the current resurgence moves into the populous states from CA to TX to FL 2. Nearly all METROs over 500K residents is deteriorating. - even those that had been stable now have rising cases slides 22-26: NYC area is now reached cases greater than the Spring surge 3. All of the most populous states are deteriorating - CA, TX, FL, NY - only CA maybe showing signs of reaching a high plateau - TX, FL, NY will become the new epicenter of this surge over the next 3 weeks - as viruses evolve and strains are imported- the fall/winter has a more rapid rate of rise predating Thanksgiving and continues at the rate post the Daily New Cases in the United States Fall/Winter surge is nearly 2X the rate of the spring or summer and the prethanksgiving slope continues into the post Daily New Cases Holiday slope -- and the post Holiday Cases per Day slope maybe even slightly greater Data as of 0:00 GMT+0 400k 200k a 200k LOOK Novel Coronavirus Daily Cases ® Daily Cases [) > 7-day moving average Red states Yellow state: t Green states Mery acres (>10% positive) [5 - <8% positive (3 - <5% p ive) (<3% positive) AL, AR, AZ, CA, CT, DE, FL, GA, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MD, MO, MS, MT, NC, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WI, WV MA, MI, OR, RI, WA I CO, DC, ME, MN, WY AK, HI, ND, VT N/A Continued discussion about invoking the 25th Amendment. Trump have been permanently banned from Twitter and at least temporarily from Facebook (maybe permanent). Trump stating that "it is only beginning". Intelligence chatter indicating that there will be massive demonstrations and even violence associated with the inauguration. Mick Mulvaney made some interesting comments on a CNN Special on "insurrection". When asked why so many people stuck with Trump when all the signs were there that he was acting crazy. Mick said that when you lie with him in the WH day after day, you see that he has accomplished a lot and you tend to downplay in your mind the signs of craziness. I even saw some of that during the time that I went to the WH every day for months in the Spring and Summer. Marc Short called me and asked for me to make connection with the Biden people and invite someone to today's Task Force Meeting so that the Biden Team can get a feel for how the current task Force works. I called Jeff Zients and Jeff gave them Cyrus Shahpar who is on the Biden team and works for Tom Frieden. Did a chat with Bishop TD Jakes including Kizzy Corbett. Trying to /-22,500,000/375,100 Spoke with Pat Foye of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA). They want me to do a 1 minute PSA to encourage their employees to get vaccinated. PRESS: Rural TV Network - "Rural Health Matters", Nashville, TN TV; POLITICO: 'There is a palpable concern': Biden presses advisers over 100 million Covid shot goal (This relates to my conversation with Zients/Ducklo) CDC: No sign of homegrown U.S. coronavirus variant, but scientists need to look harder By Joel Achenbach, Kim Bellware and Hamza Shaban
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January 12, 2021 - Global - 89,400,000/1,900,000; USA - 22,500,000/375,100 4400 deaths today John Mascola working with David Ho to determine the possibility that the UK (N501Y; B.1.1.7) and/or the RSA mutants evade the antibodies induced by vaccines. According to Ho, the RSA mutants are much more troublesome in that they do not eliminate the protection of vaccine induced antibodies, but they definitely decrease by 2 to 3-fold their potency. David is now working on studying the UK mutant. Stay tuned. The next 4 weeks will be determined by whether the large Southern, upper Mid-West, Mid-Atlantic and North-East metros will be able to contain the rapid accelerating viral spread or have the prolonged log phase followed by the high plateau of LA (now entering month 3). Deb 1. Reporting has stabilized and we have returned to the rapid pre-thanksgiving rate of cases as the current resurgence moves into the populous states from CA to TX to FL : cases are up 7% from last week's same time period. 2. Nearly all METROs over 500K residents is deteriorating. - even those that had been stable now have rising cases slides 7-45: NYC area is now reached cases greater than the Spring surge Throughout "the 2019 flu season from Sept. 29 to Dec. 28, the CDC reported more than 65,000 cases of influenza nationwide," while "during the same period last year, the agency reported 1,016 cases." IV> > wrote: • Had discussion with Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance of the UK regarding their mutant and their vaccine program. They confirmed that the mutant is spreading widely in UK and other EU countries and also that there is no increase in virulence of escape from vaccine-induced antibodies. They also mentioned that they are more concerned about the RSA variant (mutants). • Did Fireside Chat with Barbara Bush on "Future Forum for Preparedness" (her Global Health Corps) Had discussion with Azar, Pence, and the OWS crew about vaccine rollout. We will as of tomorrow (announce at the Governor's call) that we are changing our rollout strategy. We are going to be more flexible and not strictly wedded to the ACIP/CDC guidance of Phase 1a. We should continue that, but move on the people >65 years old and people 16 (or 18) to 64 with underlying conditions Am communicating with Stanley Tucci. He has heard through the media that I make Tympani:
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2021-01-13 00:00
Anthony S. Fauci
January 13, 2021 - Global - 90,100,000/1,900,000; USA - 22,700,000/379,000 The surge continues. Could this be that we are dealing with our own highly contagious variant, but we do not realize it since the CDC sequencing surveillance has not been very comprehensive as has the UK surveillance? See below 1. Reporting has stabilized and we have returned to the rapid prethanksgiving rate of cases as the current resurgence moves into the populous states from CA to TX to FL : cases are up 7% from last week's same time period, as CA improves, the high population states of TX and FL will surge and the fatalities will increase, many states are reaching 0.2% rates per population deaths COVID-19 Cases per 100K by Race/Ethnicity in the United States, Mar 1, 2020 -- Jan 10, 2021 : current surge impacting Native Americans >white > hispanic >> black Incident Cases per LOOK Week received by COC American dian Alaskan Mattye, Non-Hispanic i Agian/Pacitic Islander, Won-bMapanic WB Dlack, Mor-Blipparre, @Hapanic ie White, Mon-Hispanke cor ond dear cea Bor ag do iment. 2. Nearly all METROs over 500K residents is deteriorating. - even those that had been stable now have rising cases slides 15-18: NYC area is now reached cases greater than the Spring surge Trump impeached for 2nd time! Several Republicans vote in House for impeachment. Unlikely to come to trial in Senate until after inauguration. Biden does not want distraction from his 100 days agenda. Had zoom call with President of Ecuador - President Lenin Moreno Garces. We discussed the situation in Ecuador, vaccines and a whole bunch of questions that he had. Seems like a very smart person. I promised to advocate for equitable availability of vaccines throughout the world including Ecuador. Had Zoom call with Biden team - (Marcella Nunez-Smith, David Kessler, Rochelle Walensky, Vivek Murthy, Connolly Keigler and Maju Varghese). David led discussion regarding the inauguration. Originally there was supposed to be 250 people on the platform 6 feet apart ()POTUS and VP and Family, supreme court justices, leaders of Congress. 6 feet apart, all masked, all tested. Then then wanted 29,000 on the West Front. Maju Varghese was operationally responsible for arrangements. These 29,000 were cut down to 2000 by David (who is overall responsible for arrangements). The meeting today was to determine if we were OK with this. We all (Marcella, Rochelle, Vivek) voted that there should be no one on the West Front. I made the argument that some of the GOP Congressmen could make trouble by not wearing masks the way they refused when the Capitol was attacked and they were crowded in a room. Also, if someone gets infected, the press will jump on us. David will bring this back to Biden and Klain. Had regular every 2 weeks call with Bill Gates - Bill and Trevor Mundel know about the issue with the mutations that David Ho is working on. We discussed working together to track them as well as using Gates money to jump-start the development of mRNA vaccines to match the mutations (B.1.1.7 variant) with the N501Y mutation. We need to be ready to respond Front Page Story of Italian Magazine "I Love Sicilia" SKM_C754e2101131 7230.pdf Some Black Muslims accusing me of trying to experiment on Blacks. He mistakenly (deliberately) is ignoring that I, Pence, Biden, Harris have all gotten vaccinated. He is saying that Blacks would be the herd immunity that would protect whites: Beyond Tuskegee: Targeting of Black people for Covid-19 vaccine By Anisah Muhammad, Contributing Writer On January 10, Student Min. Muhammad, a researcher, scholar and author, delivered the Nation of Islam's Sunday address at Mosque Maryam, titled, "Beyond Tuskegee: Why Black People Must Not Take the Experimental Covid-19 Vaccine." "Why beyond Tuskegee? The vaccine mafia who want Black people to be the first injected with this experimental vaccine have centered the Tuskegee experiment in their narrative, most prominently Dr. Fauci. Let's say we get 75 percent, 80 percent of the population vaccinated," Dr. Fauci said on Dec. 9. "If we do that, if we do it efficiently enough over the second quarter of 2021, by the time we get to the end of the summer, i.e., the third quarter, we may actually have enough herd immunity protecting our society that as we get to the end of 2021, we can approach very much some degree of normality that is close to where we were before." As of July 1, 2019, the U.S. Census Bureau reports that 76.3 percent of Americans are White. 3,000,000/383,400 New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. oNO hl HT he iL I I ST AAA TTT gery ae HI RO ra 1s EL en 0 Day Mowing Avoraga 2020/2021 ome 7 Oy Moving Avorage Me Oak: Bob Woodward came to my house tonight to deliver the transcripts of the tapes of his interviews of me for his book "Rage". He said that it would help me with the writing of my book, He really wanted to come over and tape an interview with me about my current dealing with Biden. I explained the interactions with Biden (see above). Nothing controversial; however, it was clear why he wanted to come over. He is writing yet again another book. We met outside in the cold due to COVID-19 I wrote a belated birthday note to Joan Baez (her birthday was Jan.9, 1941). I had forgotten due to recent events at the Capitol, and so I wrote her a note apologizing. She wrote back: "Of course I accept!. There was a postcard circulating in Frace under a liberal administration in the eighties, "nous sommes tous dans la merde". We are all in the shit. I don't speak French anymore, but the post card stands out. Yes, we are the same age! You are a rock star and I am a badass, and age is very much beside the point. Thinking of you. Joan" PRESS: WPIX TV New York City with Dan Mannarino; Children's Hour Public Radio; WMBD radio and WYZZ TV (Central Illinois); The Children's Hour Public Radio;
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January 14, 2021 - Global - 90,800,000/2,000,000; USA - 23,000,000/383,400 Note from David Ho. Mutants are becoming very troublesome: Here is an overview first. Will share detailed organized data in a couple of days. I am available to chat at a mutually convenient time. Patrick Vallance from the UK is reaching out to me to get preliminary results as well. We have constructed SARS-CoV-2 pseudoviruses that contain all 8 mutations in the UK variant and all 9 mutations in the SA variant. In addition, we have also constructed pseudoviruses that contain each of the 16 mutations (501Y mutation is shared) individually. This entire panel has been tested on a collection of ~30 spikespecific neutralizing monoclonal antibodies, 20 convalescent plasma, and 18 vaccinee sera (Moderna and Pfizer). First, both UKdelta8 and SAdelta9 showed increased replication capacity in vitro, which is consistent with their increased transmissibility in vivo. Overall, the impact on virus neutralization is profound, with the SA variant being worse than the UK variant. It is quite clear that these two variants could now resist several classes of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies already used in the clinic or still in development, and in most cases we understand which of the mutations are conferring the resistance. This information is particularly relevant to companies like Lilly and Regeneron, which have approved clinical products that are severely affected by these results. In addition, a large majority of convalescent plasma samples showed an appreciable loss in activity against the new variants, suggesting re-infection may be more likely when confronted with either of these two strains. Finally, we also observed a significant impact on vaccinee sera in that every serum sample tested showed a substantial loss in neutralizing activity against the SA variant, whereas the loss in activity against the UK virus is not as large or as universal. Again, we believe the latter findings should be shared promptly with the field, because these new strains threaten the effectiveness of the current vaccines. Importantly, the strategy that the UK is now contemplating (giving one dose and delaying the second dose) is quite dangerous in that one or two additional critical mutations on top of either strain (under suboptimal antibody concentrations induced by one shot without a booster) could render current monoclonal antibodies and vaccines useless. Our data are germane to that debate. Our data are more or less complete, except for live virus neutralization results. We are still waiting for the UK and SA to be distributed by the US government to our lab. We expect to have the live viruses soon, and could generate the confirmatory results in about 7-10 days after receiving the viruses. -23,200,000/387,300 -23,400,000/391,000 • Received the Ken Shine Prize in Health Leadership from the University of Texas at Austin Dell Medical School • Briefed the Congresssional Blue Dog (moderate Dems) and Moderate GOP members led by Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-FL) and Rep John Katko (R-NY) • Met with Rep. Espaillat (D-NY) who want me to meet with a contingent from the Dominican Republic. I will do so, but after the inauguration • Got call from Beth Cameron (NSC) informing me that Biden want me to be the Head of WHO delegation and to announce on January 21 (4:10 AM ET) that the USA is back in the WHO. • Biden give big speech (7:15 PM) announcing $1.9 trillion budget package including $415 Billion for COVID response PRESS: KSEE24 TV (NBC Affiliate in Fresno, CA)
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January 15, 2021 - Global - 91,500,000/2,000,000; USA - 23,200,000/387,300 Had Zoom briefing of Biden and Harris to prep them for the speech that Biden will give at 3:45 PM on the vaccine rollout plan. We briefed him at 2:30 to 3:30 and he and Harris (only he spoke) gave briefing to the Nation. Biden announced today that he has asked Francis Collins to stay on. I had some influence on this. Eric Lander will be head of OSTP. Considerable concern about the new mutants in UK, Brazil and especially South Africa - David Ho is studying this carefully and finds that the UK variant results in a 2-fold decrease in ability of vaccine-induced antibodies to neutralize. For the South African variant it is 4 to 5-fold decrease. Had Zoom with David and John Mascola and others and David went over the Mutant data. Bottom line is that against the UK mutant the vaccine (Moderna)-induced sera is weakened by 2-fold; however, against the RSA (and by extrapolation although did not look the Brazilian) mutant the sera are diminished by 5-fold) MAJOR IMPLICATIONs for vaccine development and for policy such as letting people into the country PRESS: Ebro in the Morning Radio Show in NYC; Today Show NBC TV with Craig Melvin; CTV - Canadian TV - Sunday Show (Ian Wood); WUSA TV Jan Jeffcoat;
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January 16, 2021 - Global - 92,300,000/2,000,000; USA - 23,400,000/391,000 Confirmed Cases (Thousands) ay Fe Fa is} 1" New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. 'i HoT PPPS PF tHE an Dicily I ye 2020/2021 ome 7 Oy Moving Avorage en 0 Day Mowing Avoraga Jeff Zients gave me the entire Biden plan to look at and approve - I mentioned to him in detail the recent data from David Ho. We will set up a call for Sunday with the Biden team (doctors) since now several teams such as Michel Nussenzweig, Jess Bloom and others are finding the same thing as Ho. I want the call on Sunday since Michel is publishing his data in BioRx on Monday. I will bring John Mascola on the call with me to describe with some slides. Also, I have pushed with JZ to get Ned Sharpless re-appointed as NCI Director otherwise his resignation letter will go into effect on January 20. I asked JZ to get in touch with Ron Klain and re-appoint hi. JZ called me back this evening and said he spoke to Ron and Ned will stay as NCI Director. Post-holiday surge seems to be stabilizing. See Deb's comment below: 1. For the first time in weeks all indicators except fatalities are flat or declining. This suggests with full data triangulation that we have reached in most of the country the post Holiday peak and declines should continue to follow with continued mitigation. Testing rates have resumed to pre Holiday levels as for the first time week over week cases have declined (SLIDE 4) from last week's high - but testing for asymptomatic cases must increase to sustain the gains. Finding the containing the silent spread will be key to holding the current gains 2. CA is stabilizing at a high plateau and if AZ, FL, TX, NY can hold at their current plateau or early declines we could see National improvement beginning next week and improvement in fatality rates in 30 days but not without reaching 450K in 4 weeks and 500K fatalities over the next 8 weeks based on current case load and rate of rises Confirmed Cases (Thousardds) au New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. 2020/2021 Doty ee Daty Mowing Avarage -23,700,000/395,000 en 0 Day Mowing Avoraga 3. Most of the rapidly rising metros appear to be reaching peak or at a high plateau and some like Chicago and NYC are beginning to decline. The key will be continued aggressive mitigation 4. New COVID hospital admissions are stable at a high plateau nationally but if the larger states and metros can hold or improve the rates should steadily decline if we can keep everyone focused on vigilance as we vaccinate PLEASE SEE SLIDE 3 SHOWING ICU BED OCCUPACY - SHOWING CLEARLY THE PRIMARY CURRENT STATES WITH THE WINTER SURGE PRESS:
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January 17, 2021 - Global - 92,300,000/2,000,000; USA - 23,700,000/395,000 We may have reached the peak of the surge upon a surge 1. For the first time in weeks all indicators except fatalities are flat or declining. This suggests with full data triangulation that we have reached the post Holiday peak in most of the country and declines should continue with continued mitigation. These gains can be sustained and can accelerate if behavior change holds 2. Test positivity is declining. Testing rates have resumed to pre Holiday levels as for the first time week over week cases -23,800,000/397,000 1S have declined from last week's high - but testing for asymptomatic cases must increase to sustain the gains. Finding the containing the silent spread will be key to holding the current gains. 3. Cases are declining or stable across the country (down 8.8%) • John Mascola and I presented to JZ and the Biden medical team the results from David Ho's work on the UK and RSA mutants. (see above). We explained that this requires careful messaging since people would interpret incorrectly that this nullifies the vaccine which it does not. JZ has tasked me to write a 2-paragraph description to send to Biden tonight. I did so and now we have a meeting tomorrow AM to discuss possibility of travel restrictions from RSA and Brazil. PRESS: Meet the Press (NBC) with Chuck Todd; Che Tempo Che Fa Italian Sunday TV Show; MSNBC Lawrence O'Donnell