A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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December 3, 2020 - Global - 64,000,000/1,500,000; USA - 13,800,000/273,000 Records being broken: 3000 deaths yesterday; >100,000 hospitalizations; >200,000 new infections. With gauntlet of Today I met with President elect Biden's landing team. It was a good meeting that was led by Jeff Zientz, Vivek Murthy, and included David Kessler, John Auerbach, Tom Inglesby, at their process of the approval of the among others. We went on to discuss the challenges associated with the rollout of the vaccination campaign. In addition, I gave them my advice on what the most effective communication strategy would be for the upcoming administration. In addition, they wanted might take on what the challenges with be in the coming months of January, February, march, and beyond. It was an excellent conversation in which they all expressed their gratitude and respect for me for the work that I have been doing over the past several months. At exactly 3:00 PM, 1 hour as to the beginning of the meeting there was a prearranged call with President elect Joe Biden together with chief of staff Ron Klain. President-Elect Biden was very glad to chat with me and immediately stated that he wanted me to continue in my position as director, NIAID. In addition, he wanted me to be his chief medical adviser. Then, Ron and President elect Biden asked me a series of questions concerning some of the decisions that they would likely have to make in the coming months. Mayor Bill De Blasio called me up asking for advice about the surges that are occurring in NYC and how much of a lock down he should implement. He wanted to keep things mostly open until after the holidays and then shut down. I told him that this was a big mistake since by that time, the damage will have been done and he will have precipitated a major surge. I urged him to close the bars and restaurants and subsidize the establishments so that they do not go under. If he does that and discourages private, large gatherings, he could get away with keeping the shopping areas open. I apologize to the UK on BBC radio for implying that their process of the approval of the vaccine was rushed and sloppy PRESS: CBS News "The Takeout" with Major Garrett; Sky News UK TV; MSNBC with Andrea Mitchell; New York Times interview with Tara Pope Parker; KQED NPR Radio, San Francisco; BBC World News; New Zealand Herald (Dick Brass) print media; Bloomberg: - 14,000,000/276,000
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December 4, 2020 - Global - 64,500,000/1,500,000 USA - 14,000,000/276,000 Did photo shoot and interview with Alice Park of TIME Magazine. • I called up Rosa De Lauro to congratulate her on being chosen by Nancy Pelosi as Chair of the Appropriations Full Committee. She had tears in he eyes thanking me nd saying how excited she was that Biden has announced that I would be his Chief Medical Advisor. • Spoke with Don Fehr of the NHL Players Association about the likelihood of the NFL having a season and what my projection for 2021 was. wa 4 December 2020 Data remains unétable but when cases rise despite the decreased reporting across the West Coast, TX, Mid-Atlantic and NEit isa significant red flags -- there are histeric rate of rises in populous states = last week was our highest number of >40 and > 70 new admissions New admissions and inpatientcensus data comes directly and daily from the haspitals so that reperting is more reliable the improvements inthe Nerthern Plains, Rocky Mountain States and Heartland is being directly offset by the surging hospitalization anthe West Coast, Sunbelt, MidAtlantic and NE-- these more populous states will drive this aver the next 2-3 weeks independent of a post Thanksgiving surge as they reflect transmission before Thanksgiving and represent the areatest threat to haspital resilience- the current situationis mot sustainable All trends show that this escalation is occurring-even before the transmission fram Thanksgiving -- we should begin to see the full impact of Thanksgiving starting next week and as warned this Winter surge will be bigger, broader, and more deadly. It will bring together both the Spring and Sunomer surge into one overwhelming threat dramatically increasing hospitalizations and deaths ; even with the innowations this will be catastrophic without increased mitigation now ~ states without adequate public polhcles will have the highest fatallty rates per populathons equal to the Spring rates despite improvements In care due to the lack of mitigation We de nat have enough vaccine fer vulnerable Anvericans to change haspitalization and fatalities trends in Dase-Feb -- we need to kee clear te the Qrmerican people vaccines will haw: animpact inthe Spring but NOT awer the next 3 months. Eechavier change is aur sole intervervticn There are now 33 States in the red (24) and orange (9) zone for hospitalizations of COVID cases = general medical care deteriorates when states enter the red zone= there are more states in this category everyday = decision by COC on wha is immunized tirst will determine the future stabilityafthe hospital system and hospitalization rates - current plan will not change the pandemic dynamics impact on hospitals. The meverment of the surgeinta populous states especially without adequate policies or without individual Americans mitigating will drive fatalities and most of these states donat have adequate mitigation policies and fatalities will continue averaging over 2500/day 17 Kfweek, 70K/menth ata minimum reaching over 330K by New Years and 450K by the end of February without calls for action at the Federal, State, and Local level and using PSAs te combat the myths related to COVID throughout the country Ital be wery evident over the next 30 days that mitigation policies saves lives and the lack of mitigation results in preventable deaths Mew Cases Percent Tes Pew Vata atatate Me Pei Caves -- Fly Maren deere Me Daily Test Ponty New Deaths Hew Hospital oD Bee Tee Selatan he ee ty it Pomitivity Sataatat T.Day Moving Aearage Admissions & rs E Hie pita Adreiione aa i a ( % " ha a PULP te ata LW tatataaala ete" wells ele Rea eae yy yy Me Dely Cetra Ghreveers, Me Caiy Cet = 7-Day Boeing aera GS Deity eoreched Adem Source: COC slabe-reporied data (Cases and deaihs), CELR and Federal Aggregaie Testing Data, Unified Hospital Dataset Enable etaBote de Be So Geet ee ---- I-Oiy Mees bereges COMMRVED CASES OM A TAY ROLUMG AVEERGE CONFIRMED CASES DAILY IN LOS ANGELES-LONG BEACH-ANAHEIM, CA 7 DAY ROLLING AVERAGE HE range County, CA Tice Angeles Cait, 0 a, Jim Sciutto and Kate Sullivan -- 14,300,000/278,000 More records broken - 200,000 cases; 2885 deaths; >100,000 hospitalization. Hospitals are starting to get over-run. California starting lock-downs to avoid hospital crisis (see above figure) PRESS: NBC Today Show with Savannah Guthrie; Multiple press stories about Biden speaking with me, asking me to stay on as NIAID Director and offering me the title of Chief Medical Advisor; Greta Van Susteren "Full Court Press" TV (VOA); "Today with Kaye" Baltimore Radio Show; CNN Town Hall with Anderson Cooper and Sanjay Gupta; Biden said he asked Fauci to stay on and be a chief medical adviser in his administration
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December 5, 2020 - Global - 65,000,000/1,500,000; USA - 14,300,000/278,000 Surge continues with more records broken. California locking down because they are at 15% or less of beds available and thousands of cases of coming in for hospitalizations. oa December 4920... In Most states -- this will allow us to see the Impact of Thanksgiving In the regions where cases and hospitalizations were stabilized before Thanksgiving -- the Northern Plains and Racky Mountain states Test positivity and case reporting is inoerrect at the State level in GA and VA and we are working with the states to correct this -- both have increasing hospitalizations The impravernents in the Northern Plains, Rocky Mountain States and Heartland is being directly offset by the surging cases and hospitalization on the West Coast, Sunbelt, MidAtlantic and NE--these more populous states will drive this over the next 2-3 weeks and when combined with a pending full Thanksgiving surge will represent the greatest threat to hospital systems and inpatlent care All trends show that this escalation was occurring even before the transmission from Thanksgiving --- we should begin to see the full impact of Thanksgiving starting next week and as warned this Winter surge will be bigger, broader, and more deadly. It will bring together both the Spring and Summer surge into one overwhelming threat dramatically increasing hospitalizations and deaths : even with the innevations this will be catastrophic without increased mitigation now -- states without adequate public policies will have the highest fatality rates per populations equal ta the Spring rates despite improvements in care due to the lack of mitigation = death rates in ND and §D and approaching NY/NJ #s We da not have enough vaccine for vulnerable Americans to change hospitalization and fatalities trends in Dec-Feb--- we need ta be clear ta the Armerican people vaccines will have an impact in the Spring but NOT over the next 3 manths. Behavior change and proactive testing ta find both the asymptamatic and symptomatic transmitters are our only interventians and states are still not testing carrectly te find both There are now 344 States in the red (24) and orange (10) zone for hospitalizations of COVID cases -- general medical care deteriorates when states enter the red zone -- there are more states in this category everyday -- decision by CDC on whe is immunized first will determine the future stability of the hospital system and hospitalization rates - current plan will nat change the pandemic dynamics impact on hospitals. The movement of the surge into populous states especially without adequate policies or without individual Americans mitigating will drive fatalities and mast of these states do not have adequate mitigation policies and fatalities will continue averaging over 2500/day 17K,/week, 70K/month ata minimum reaching over 330K by New Years and 450K by the end of February without calls for action at the Federal, State, and Local level and using P5As to combat the myths related to COVID throughout the country it will be very evident over the next 30 days that mitigation policies saves lives and the lack of mitigation results in preventable deaths 00 USA -- 14,500,000/280,000 Trump still insisting that the election was "rigged" and that he won by a landslide. More than 30 court cases have been thrown out as frivolous. Alyssa Farah resigns. Good for her. One of the few good people in the administration. This might mean that I am not allowed out in the media any more since she has always advocated for me.
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December 6, 2020 (Sunday) - Global - 65,900,000/1,500,000 USA - 14,500,000/280,000 Had important Zoom call today (11:00 AM) with Jeff Zients and Jake Sullivan - Jeff and Jake are going to make some policy announcements for the Biden tam next week (Tuesday0 and they wanted to make sure that it was cleared by me. They had 3 issues: 1) the 100 days of mask wearing. I advised that they say "at least 100 days" or give some indication that it might be longer since when they get to 100 days, we may need to extend; 2) they want to say that they will distribute100milindoses of vaccine in teh1st 100 days of the Biden administration. I warned that this might actually be an underestimate. They first need to check that we will actually have a supply (check with Perna, but also make sure that we do not seem that this is undershooting. Since we are now saying that we will have 40 million doses by the end of December and even more by the end of January, then 100 million by the first 100 days of the Biden administration is far too little; 3) Schools - I suggested that they always lead with saying that the default position is to open and keep open the schools. 6 December 2020 The improvementsin the Northern Plains, Rocky MountainStates and Heartland is being directly offset by the surging cases and hespitalization on the West Coast, Sunbelt, MidAtlantic and NE -- these more populousstates will drive this over the next 2-3 weeks and when combined with a pending full Thanksgiving surge will represent the greatest threat to hospital systems and general inpatient care-- this is not about ventilators and PPE this time -- this will be about the statf capacityto care for this volume of patients with and without cOVID 33 States are inthe COVID red zone for cases and test positivity and 9 states are in the orange zone for test + and red for cases There are now 34 Statesin the red (24) and orange (10) zone for hospitalizations of COVID cases -- general medical care deteriorates when states enter the red 2one-- there are riore states in this categery everyday decision by COC en wha i inmunined first will determine the future stability af the hospital system and hospitalization rates - current plan will net change the pandemic dynamics impact on hospitals Alltrends show that this escalation was occurring even before the transmission trom Thanksgiving -- we should begin ta see the full impact of Thanksaiving starting this week and as warned thls Winter surge will be bigger, broader, and more deadly. It will bring teaether both the Spring and Summer surge inte one overwhelming threat dramatically increasing hospitalizations and deaths: even with the innovations this will be catastrophic withoutincreased mitigation mow -- states without adequate publle pollcbes will have the highest fatallty rates per pepulations equal te the Spring rates despite Imprevernents In care due te the lack of mitigation --death rates In ND and SD and approaching N¥/MJ #5 We do not have enough vaccine for vulnerable Americans to change hospitalization and fatalities trendsin Dec-Feb-- we need to be clear to the Qmerican people vaccines will haw: animpact inthe Spring but NOT over the next 3 months, Behavior change and proactive testing te find both the asymptomatic and symptomatic transmitters are our only interventions and states are still net testing correctly to find kath The movernent of the surge into populous states especially without adequate policies or without individual Americans mitigating will drive fatalities and nvost of these states do not have adequate mitigation policies and fatalities will continue averagingover 2500/day 17 Kiweek, TOK /nvonth at amininun reaching over 330K by New Years and 450K by the end of February without calls for action at the Federal, State, and Local level and using PSs to combat the myths related to COVID throughout the country twill be very evident over the next 30 days that mitigation policies saves lives and the lack of mitigation results in preventable deaths on for They also want to announce on Tuesday the important role that I will have to be the Chief medical Advisor for the Administration. They will send me the wording to make sure that I am OK with it. Gov. Cuomo called me today (1:30 PM) - He wanted to touch bases with me in anticipation for the fact that I will be joining him tomorrow on a press conference for the state of MY. He wanted to brief me on what he was going to say. He and I have a growing and strong relationship. Received a call (3:00 PM) from Olivia Dalton from the Biden Transition team asking me to participate in an event (I asked to do it virtually) in Wilmington where Biden will announce his "health team" including me. We discussed my virtual remarks and other issues. Deb Birx on MTP pleading (as I have been doing) with the public to abide by public health mitigation methods. Example of state by state increases in deaths and cases: USA Total Hew Total New Total Aciive Tot Cases! Deathe' Total Testa! # State Cases Cases [7 Depths Daaths Recoversd Casas 1M pop 1M pop Tosts 1M pop Population USA Total T4772,555 4255,272 285,550 Carats) QGS,862 5,828,103 44,600 B63 203,884,001 615,959 California 24198 19,790 605,538 690,024 33,290 S01 24,675,478 624,502 99,512,223 2 I Texas 22.977 4,051, 256,966 45,921 7a2 12,406,532 427,838 28,995,001 a) Pennsylvania Tao 231,788 162,291 S612 Bré 5,859,001 457,663 12,801 89 New York 34.806 445,114 9 243,437 a7,239 1,793 20,173,461 1,037,006 19,459,561 S (iris 14,782 405,673 350,633 80,772 1,088 810,918,998 861,676 12,677 21 a I Floricta 18,007 668,358 351,821 48,305. BRA 12,857,007 5aH, 624 I 21477 ,7ar 7 I Qihie 6,882 306,950 143,131 39,093 BES 6,424,803 541,086 17,689,100 Michigan 10,118 165,269 24,5681 42,082 1,013 7,348,627 735,830 a6 657 a I ia 6,122 219,094 142,113 4,563 4,464,492 669,159 I 6,732,219 10) Georgia 9.725 S05224 = (178,405 46,561 4503002 452,462 10,617,423 ni I Kaneas 1,786 102,947 65,736 58,514 445,186 = - 290,112 I 2,013,314 Arizona 6085: $4,980 290,256 4aar4 S46 2,695,707 370,355 Taree? Mew Jersey 17,491 200,265 = 147,506 41114 1,858 6,175,836 65,018 8,882,190 4 Massachusetts 10,970 184,117 51,371 35,749 1,583 8,774,697 1,273,078 6,892,502 15 I Minnesota 293,151 41,918 60,106 baz 4,433,728 767,237 Saab 16) North Carolina 5,467 315,979 = 61,088 28,473 B21 05,461,220 «= B2O,7O7 = 10,488 084 7 Colorado a8 56,975 191,909 43,798 SEO 1,915,644 315,285 5,758,736 ti I vrisconsin 3,625 397,653 63,277 68,482 62a I 2,584,875 443,951 I 5.822.494 Oklahoma 1,060 177,564 29,451 52,787 2227 ttt 563,001 3,956,971 Daily New Deaths in the United States 4k 3k 2k Novel Coronavirus Daily Deaths oe sat @& 8 oF gf yt We ooh ve ® Daily Deaths il I Daily Deaths Deaths per Day Data as of 0:00 GMT+8 ans ( ~& 7-day moving average , i) I I I I il Pe PPS as gh PB ab gh Amhe PP SS aoe ate ate gh oe? pr a ge? GF oF oF oF o_o ow! OM" Confirmed Cases [Thousancs) New Dally Confirmed COVID-19 Cases In the U.S. a5 207.0 e¢ il ars ha, "ig, ty Day eee Day Mowing Avarage 14,600,000/281,3000
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2020-12-07 00:00
Anthony S. Fauci
December 7, 2020 - Global - 66,400,000/1,500,000; USA - 14,600,000/281,3000 Bracing for post-Thanksgiving surge! Deb's Daily Report: Data and reporting has stabilized and we are back on the same accelerating curve as before the delayed reporting and substantial declines in testing over the past 10 days. This week we expect to see the beginning of the post Thanksgiving surge as this would be when the silent spread starts to impact the more vulnerable Americans. We now have only 2 states (HI, VT) and DC in the green zone, 12 in the yellow and orange zone and 36 in the red zone. We are now seeing significant resurgence in all states except VT and HI and rapidly increasing cases across America that will lead to escalating hospitalizations the end of this week into next week and then fatalities. This is the worse situation we have faced and although vaccinations will help towards the end of Jan the next 7 weeks will be overwhelming if we don't work with states to increase their mitigation and provide the highest level of Administration support to the behavioral changes needed by every American. Deb ATERLGE ASESOM A TOY ROLLING. COMPRM ED 7 December 2020 The improvements in the Northern Plains, Rocky hauntain States and Heartlaned is being directly offset by the sunging cases and hospitalization onthe West Coast, Sunbelt, MidAtlantic and NE - these more populous states willdrive this over the next 2-3 weels and when combined with pending full Thanksgiving surge will represent the greatest threat ta hos pital systems and general impatient care--thisis mat about ventilatarsand PRE this time --this willbe stout the staff capacity ta care for this volume of patients with and without OOWID 39 States are in the GOWID ned none far cases and test positivity and S$ states are in the orange zone far test + and red far cases There are now 34 States im the reed (24) ane orange (210) 2one for hosaltalizationsaf OOVID cases -- general medical cone deteriorates when states enter the red zone -- there are more states inthis category everyday --decsion by COC on who ls immunized first will determine the future stability of the bosaltal system and hice pltalizathon rakes - current plan alll mat change the pandemic dynamics impact on hospitals (have included metro slides from across the USA. First thesseare the most metras withsimultaneous Increases In cases we have experienced thraughout this fandemic. (have included the 3 pathenns : metros fully escalating before Thanksgiving, metros at high plateau before: Thanksgiving and those that were imarceeling, before Thanksghving which willl allows to cee the impact of Holiday gatherings and praject them inta the next set of Holidays. We should begin to see the full bmq@act of Thanksgiving starting this week and 2s warned this Winter surge will be bigger, broader, and more deadly, Bringing together the Spring and Summer singe Into ame cverahiel ning threat Increasing hospitalizations and deaths > even with the Innicwathons this will be catashraphic without foreased mitigation now ~ states without adequate public polices will have the highest fatality rates per populations equal to the Spring rates daspita improvaniants In care due to the lack of mitigation. Wa do mot have anough waccine forwulmerable Anericans to change heapitalization and fatalities trands Im Dee-Fab -- we mecd ta be char tothe American pemple waceines will have an immact inthe: Spring but MT aver the next 3 months. Aehawior change and proactive: testing to find bath the asymptomatic amd symptomatic. 'transmitters anc ourandy Interventions ane states ane still mot testing conectly ta find both The mowement of ther surge inte papulous states especially without agequate palickess or with out Ind iuid wall Qumesricanes mitigating will drive fatalities and most of these states donot haat: adequate mitigation polickss and Fatalitics will contln averaging carer 2o0Ei day Lik Aweek, 70K month at a miindinnun reaching over 330K hy New Years and 450K by the ond of February without calls for action at the: Federal, State, and Local level and using PSAs to combat the myths related te OO¥ID throughout the counibry it wll be very evident ower the nowt 20 days that mitigation policies and behavioral change saves livesand the lack of mitigation results in preventable deaths CONFIRMED CASES DAILY IN NEW YORK-NEWARK-JERSEY CITY, NY¥-NJ-PA 7 DAY ROLLING AVERAGE loo 4 Othern Somerset County, Hi Pdorris County, Pll Monmouth Courtp, All Ackland Courts, Pay Orean County, All Aichereared County, H¥ Union County, Hl Peewus ic County, Hl Paiddlices Cousitp. A Pudeon Courty, Al Bergen Courtlp. a Come County, Bl Aiew York Gaunt, i WeHtchesler Counts, MY Ais cseg Count, HY Sulfolk Gaurnts, Av Grarc Courty, Ay Eings County Att Qucea County, Wr 10000 ai ano a0 See below for dire situation in NYC and Los Angeles COMMRVED CASES OM A TOAY ROLUMG WEEE CONFIRMED CASES DAILY IN LOS ANGELES-LONG BEACH-ANAHEIM, CA 7 DAY ROLLING AVERAGE Sang County, cA Mes Angeles Cosnity, 0, Joe Biden @ @!oeBiden - 2h eco Dr. Fauci isn't just one of our foremost experts on combating viruses--he is a good man and a tireless public servant. He has served six presidents and led us through some of our toughest challenges. Our administration, and our country, will be stranger because of his guidance. © 3.1K tl 78k 82.9K iT, At Task Force meeting on prior agreement between Deb and I, Deb says that the country is in dire straits and we need to give the message from above that this is serious and we must double down on mitigating. I jump in and say that we must be out there warning the people that if they do not mitigate, the hospitals will be over-run. The elephant in the room is that the POTUS is ignoring this and the message must come from him since the people who are not paying attention and who will not wear masks or not travel or not congregate are his people. The VP after the discussion got going for the first time ever got defensive and even hurt that we (mostly Deb) were implying that the administration was not taking the pandemic seriously. The issue is that maybe we are taking it seriously, but the POTUS and his people certainly are not. That is the lesion. The POTUS is undermining everything that we are trying to do. Deep down the VP has to realize this and still he fiercely defends the POTUS. Tragic! PRESS: CNN New Day with John Berman; Press conference with Gov. Cuomo (Boradcast from Albany, NY; Fireside chat with Norah O'Donnell (CBS) at the Milken Institute Future of Health Summit; Interview with Katy Kay for the Bloomberg American Health Summit; taping for ABC Special on Vaccines Biden-Harris Presidential Transition{] ane @Transition46 Dr. Anthony Fauci, America's preeminent expert on infectious diseases, has been among the most trusted voices throughout the pandemic. He will continue in his role and serve as Chief Medical Adviser on COVID-19 to President-elect Biden as we work to overcome this crisis. 3:05 PM - Dec 7, 2020 - Twitter Web App .-- 14,800,000/283,000 8 December 2020 The Impravements in the Narthern Plains, Rocky Mountain States and Heartland is being directly offset by the surging cases and hospitalization on the West Coast, Sunbelt, MidAtlantic and NE --- these more populous states will drive this over the next 2-3 weeks and when combined with the pending Thanksgiving surge will represent the greatest threat to hospital systems and general inpatient care -- this ls not about ventilators and PPE this tire -- this will be about the staff capacity to care for this volume of patients with and without COVID Testing declined during Thanksgiving time period and mow testing has resumed and test positivity is rising despite the increased testing indicating community spread 36 States are in the COVID red zone 9 states are in the orange zone, 3 states are in the yellow zone and 2 states and DC in green zone [have concentrated on hospitalization in this daily report -- an overall country COVID inpatient snapshot --slide 5, a time sequence of new daily admission slides 6-12 and a state by state summary of current daily admissions showing the states with rising admissions, states at a high plateau and states that are current improving. Slides 13-64. We should start to see the impact of Thanksgiving on hospitalizations towards the end of this week and into next week. There are now 35 States in the red (24) and orange (11) zone for hospitalizations of COVID cases -- general medical care deteriorates when states enter the red zone -- there are more states in this category everyday --decision by CDC on who is immunized first will determine the future stability of the hospital system and hospitalization rates - current plan will nat change the pandemic dynamics impact an hospitals. We should begin ta see the full impact of Thanksgiving starting this week and as warned this Winter surge will be bigger, broader, and more deadly. Bringing together the Spring and Summer surge into one overwhelming threat increasing hospitalizations and deaths : even with the innovations this will be catastrophic without increased mitigation now -- states without adequate public policies will have the highest fatality rates per populations equal ta the Spring rates despite improvements in care due to the lack of mitigation. We do not have enough vaccine for vulnerable Americans to change hospitalization and fatalities trends in Dec-Feb--- we need to be clear to the American people vaccines will have an impact in the Spring but NOT over the next 3 months. Behavior change and proactive testing ta find both the asymptomatic and symptomatic transmitters are our only interventions and states are still not testing correctly to find both The movement of the surge into populous states especially without adequate policies or without individual Americans mitigating will drive fatalities and mast of these states do not have adequate mitigation policies and fatalities will continue averaging aver 2500/day 17K/week, 7OK/manth at a minimum reaching over 330K by New Years and 450K by the end of February without calls for action at the Federal, State, and Local level and using PSAs to combat the myths related ta COVID throughout the country It will be very evident over the next 30 days that mitigation policies and behavioral change saved lives and the lack of mitigation resulted in preventable deaths
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December 7, 20207:56 AM ET JON MARCUS iL. 12. S00 New Daily Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. 25) a 2m tel a " E =Soin 1m ' AAT ll I I j I I oS & ae, ee oe ~ & Ped » Ome Ss oo & A, aa 'te Pd ag Pal Hy '. we re 'ad Pd id rat Peer EP SE TOPE? Sy € s £e SF FSP IFS FS 20E0 Ce ee? Dery Mu ig Avarape 12 December 2020 Featuring the majornvetnas across the USA today The improvements im the in the Northen Plains, Rocky Mountain States and Heartland are currently holdinganed the declines are nwore raped iin the States mitigating -- MD, 1A, but Nationwide this is being offset by the surging cases and hospitalization on the West Coast, Sunbelt, Mid-Atlantic and North-East -- these imone populous states will drive caged and hospitalizations over the next 2-3 weeks stressing hospital sstena and general inpatient care : slide 6 ahorws the exquainding pandemic on both onasts similar to the Spring surge but with continued cases in the center of the country Early evidence of Thanksaning surge of cases across multigle metros : interesting patterns are evoking --states that were matigating before Thanksgring have a blunted increase in cases and those without mitigation especialtyacross the Sunbelt have langer increases -- the except to this LA where cases continue to escalate without improvement: 3 states (7X, UL, Pa, CA) daily deaths over 200 ane 3 states (KS, OH, FL) over 100 fday--these should be a hewer days with the peak forwoeek Wed Consistent with port Thanksgiving enhanced community aprend- 39 etates have increasing test positivity and 35 major metros = mort of our large metros now have increasing test positivity di ig Ing community spread Hodpitalizations are starting to rise again --the primary rise from Thanksgiving should be ower the newt 2 weeks There are meow 32 States in the ned (21) and orange (11) zone for hospitalizations of COWID cases = general medical care deteriorates when states enter the ned bone -- ang rovemnents mone Northern Plain and Rocky Mountan slates-- deacon by COC on veh 6 oreunaed first will de tennane the future stability of the hospital systen and hospitalization rates» cunsent plan will mot change the pandeméc dynamécs impact on hospitals but could decease quarantine = CO will head to sue ew muidarsé hat 10 days aller second immunization there is eo reason LO Quaranline ary ouned persone] alter emodsure. Fatality dadly rales are ow twice Lie Summer surge ad are now paasanp the Soaring sure twill bee critical thatimancclonal Ab and Ramdasiviriara used arian and more coraistenthy among vulnerable Arana ra This Winter surpe will be big per, broader, and more deadly but con stall be changed with messaging to states and health care providers, There Is inaufficlant vaccine of prioritization for vulnerable Amerk to changelh it and fatalities trancds in Owe-Fab we neind to be clear to ther American people vaccines will have an im@actin the Spring. Behavior change, proactive testing, aid improved use of therageutics can change the course ol this current surge: The movement of the surge into populous states especially without adequate policies or without individual Arvericans mitigating will drive fatalities, most states donot haw adequate mitigation policies and fatalities will continue averaging ower 2500) day 1K week, 70K imenath at a minim reaching ower 330K by Mew fears and 450K by the end of February without calls for action at the Federal, State, and Local level and using Pods to combat the COVID myths thiroughesut the country Ityeill be very evident over the nest 30 days that mitigation policies and behavioral change sayed lives 24,0 COMMRVED CASES OM A TOAY ROLUMG AvEERGE 10000 + + 0 + CONFIRMED CASES DAILY IN LOS ANGELES-LONG BEACH-ANAHEIM, CA 7 DAY ROLLING AVERAGE Sang County, cA Mice gles Cevnty, 'McKinnon. A spoof with me and Deb 1 -- 70,200,000/1,600,000 USA -- 16,000,000/298,000 PRESS: TWEET FROM BIDEN - I've seen him take on HIV/AIDS, H1N1, Ebola, Zika, COVID19, and every infectious disease in between, over his nearly forty years of service to our country. Trusted. A truth teller. A patriot." -- President-elect Biden on Dr. Anthony Fauci I was portrayed on Saturday Night Live by Kate McKinnon. A spoof with me and Deb Birx. They slammed Deb
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December 8, 2020 - Global 66,700,000/1,500,000; USA - 14,800,000/283,000 Daily New Cases in the United States Daily New Cases Cases per Day Data as of 0:00 GMT+0 300k 200k 100k ; Penal I Uta rel Ps Pes i {Sto ot StS oP eb re an St Ne OS eM St Ay re Se PP a a a FF PF aah gh GF FP FF Ph Pest et oe oF oF OF TW" WT Novel Coronavirus Daily Cases @ Daily Cases 9 -@ 3-day moving average [_] ~» 7-day moving average Harvey Alter to receive Nobel Prize in Physiology or medicine to be presented to hi at NIH (Natcher) by the Swedish Ambassador to the USA. I am invited and will use this as an excuse not to attend the "Vaccine Summit" at the White House today. Trump will use it as a PR stunt to claim credit for the vaccines. Pfizer (Bourla) and Moderna (Bancel) have pulled out of attending. Biden announced his medical team today in Wilmington, DE. I was announced as his "Chief Medical Advisor". I have made a video of my message to the group since I cannot attend (see above). • Had call with Joan Baez who wanted information about the effectiveness of masks in protecting you from acquisition of infection. Also, she is worried about her son and daughter-in-law who want to travel to South America. She wants to be able to tell them that I said that it was ill-advised. • Call with Ellen Sigal and then Larry Horowitz about FDA Commissioner. Lots of rumors and the usual anxiety about candidates. Josh Sharfstein is being considered but many people are pushing back. Kessler is being considered, but most everyone thinks that this is a bad idea. Janet Woodcock is emerging as a top choice. I like that. • Much concern that we did not contract with Pfizer for enough vaccine; we just did not accept their offer to provide more. Now it seems that this was a big mistake. Press are all over this. • Nancy Messonnier called. She is concerned that Gen. Perna is making decisions without proper knowledge and/or consultation with CDC. She has had long-standing problem with him. sent them for Wall Street Journal - 15,000,000/285,000 9 December 2020 The imarovenents in the Northern Plains, Rocky Mountain States and Heartland is beingdirectly offset by the surging cases and hospitalization onthe Weit Comet, Sunbelt, MidAtlantic and NE --these nore populous states will drive this over the mest 2-2 weeks and when combined with the pending Thanksgiving surge will represent the greatest threat to hosgital systems and general inpatient care Wie ore mow beginning to see the first evidence of impact of Thanksgiving family and friend gatherings -- see slides 10-19 --there are metrosthat were declining (heartland and upper micvyest) thatare mow increasing again and there are other northeast metros thet were rising that are now rising ata mone nopad rate. By ineset week I vill be able to define this more accurately and enaure we message about the upcoming Holidays Testing declined during Thankigiving time percd and nove testing haa resumed and test positivity niging deapite the inoneaded testing indhcating Community sired 36 States are in the COVID red 2one 9 alates are in Che Orenpe bone, J slates aren Hie yellow Done and 2 states and DC in green pone Hosnitalizations are starting to rise again --the primany rise from Thanksgiving sheould be over the neat 2 wrecks There ane now 35 Statesin the red (24) and orange (111) zone lor hospitalizations of COVID cases--peneral medical care delerionated when slates enter the ned zone -- there ancimenre states in this category everday -- decisien by cO00 on who is limvunized first will determine the furbure stability of the hospital aystem and loapetalization tates - cunent plan will mo. change the pandemic dynamics impact on hospital. Fatality Gaily rates are move bevice (he Sunime: surge ane will soon excead the Soaring surge This Wilnvter surge will ba bigger, broader, and mora daadly. Bringing tagether the states of the Soaring and Sumner surge inte one overwhelming therrat increasing hospitalaiions and deaths > evenwith De inmoeations this will be catastrophic without increased milgation now -- states without adequate public polices will have the highest fatality rates per populations equal to the Spring rates despite Improvements In care dua te the lack of mitigation. We do not have enough vaccine for vulnerable Americans to change hospétalization and fatalities trends in Dec-Feb--we need to be clear to Lie vimerican foonle vaccines will hares an impact in the Soring but MOT over ther niet 3 imeenths, Behavior change and proaction testing te find hath the asyinntamiatic: and symptomatic transmitters ae our only interventions and states are still mot testing correctly to find both The movenient of the surge into pogulous states especially without adequate polices or withaut individual Americana mltigating will drive fatalities, mast states do mot have adequate mitigation policies and fatalities will continue averaging aver P500dawy 17K week, TOK! month at aiminimumn reaching over 330K by Mew Years and 4508 by the end of February without calls for action at the Federal, State, and Lecal level and using PSAs to combat the COVID myths throughout the country Itwillbe wery cvident over the newt 20 days that mitigation polickes and behavioral change saved Ives and the lack of mitigation resulted in prewentabde deaths • Katie and Stephen Miller called me to thank me for the baby gift I sent them for daughter We had a nice discussion about life after Trump. • I was awarded "Sicilian of the Year" by the Magazine I Love Sicilia PRESS: KTWV Los Angeles Radio; BBC "Hard Talk", TV and Radio; Wall Street Journal CEO Council;
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December 9, 2020 - Global - 67,800,000/1,600,000; USA - 15,000,000/285,000 Deaths reached record of 3000 today! Just waiting to realize the full brunt of the Thanksgiving holiday. Trump still totally preoccupied with trying to overthrow the election. Biden carefully putting his team together +3355. skh 12n/1-13/7 +1648 1,375,502 I Me357 oi +5, i 15483 5 I 450.5% 1L/2a-11/9 1.2% +174 1,004,175 bd 140,958 ' +1), 6% 97,408 : +10.2% 10,26 ALES Vuyfi7-n23 I yo.0% bah 1,197,199 412.2% Mo07o fa BRATa ot FIN VO,7E4 476.9% Wis td-10 16 17m f +h 1,067,067 I +1 3h 128,975 H #14 eS I : ath A501} a4 11/3-11/5 BSN I 4ELEH ct 109,904} WIS. 61281 0° #1kAH A woyfe7-ay2 I 7am! +1b1% s9,399 I +157% G8 S753! +12R2% 5e09 4.0% 1020-108 I 410.3% 494,095 I w2LSM 29,165 t 4.6% 86198 : W104 5.585 I «105% 10yf19-10/19 57m I +E. 40,977 I +14.0% 3,020 i +0.1% am I *7eh 505s I 1.4% L060 12 ame of 421m asage3 I aH Pe a ee maz 0G 41H ages {I .1Sk of 2's Le I hui Tr ae TAU} +5 rT a i hae Of22-a RE am I 201460 40K 7433300) #4. 3182.28 4A SAL dak a re 289,951 +1h2% 7,024 I oT a San i 41.6% 98-5) 14 TT ee 251,781 i -LLEs 3880: SH IF I 5K 5a af L-ay7 51s I 5.6% Pr ee 53} TH 0S} 4.0 TT Pee af25-/31. 54h 3.6% 291,472 -12% Ee a962 if LK 6,433 5.1% Bs 18-324 5.6% AL7% 256,785 17.2% e780} TSH amu} 5.0% B77 BRK ph i Ln ee Ga Wo oo 11. 12. wuth -- 15,300,000/289,000 10 December 2020 The improvements in the in the Northern Plains, Rocky Mountain States and Heartland are currently holding (slide 5) and the declines are more rapid in the States mitigating -ND, 14, but Nationwide this is being offset by the surging cases and hospitalization on the West Coast, Sunbelt, Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast --these more populous states will drive cases and hospitalizations over the next 2-3 weeks and represent the greatest threat te hospital systems and peneral inpatient care By next week I will be able to better define the impact of Thanksgiving travel and gatherings rmore accurately and ensure we message about the upooming Holidays Please review the tlme sequences of cases (slides 9-14), hospitalizations (slides15-20) and mortality (slides 21-24) 36 States are in the COVID red zane 9 states are In the orange zone, 3 states are in the yellow zone and 2 states and DC in green zone Hospitalizations are starting to rise again -- the primary rise from Thanksgiving should be over the next 2 weeks There are now 35 States in the red (24) and orange (11) zone for hospitalizations of COVID cases -- general medical care deteriorates when states enter the red zone -- there are more states in this category everyday -- decision by CDC on whe is immunized first will determine the future stability of the hospital system and hospitalization rates - current plan will not change the pandemic dynarnics impact on hospitals. Fatality dally rates are now twice the Summer surge and are now passing the Spring surge priar to the impact af CA cases it will be critical that monoclonal Ab and Remdesivir are used earlier and more consistently among vulnerable Americans This Winter surge will be bigger, broader, and more deadly but can still be changed with messaging to states and health care providers. There is insufficient vaccine or prioritization for vulnerable Americans to change hospitalization and fatalities trends in Dec-Feb-- we need to be clear to the American people vaccines will have an impact in the Spring but NOT over the next 3 months. Behavior change, proactive testing, and improved use of therapeutics can change the course of this current surge The movement of the surge into populous states especially without adequate policies or without individual Americans mitigating will drive fatalities, most states do not have adequate mitigation policies and fatalities will continue averaging over 2500/day 17K/week, 7OK/month at a minimum reaching over 330K by Mew Years and 450K by the end of February without calls for action at the Federal, State, and Local level and using PSAs to combat the COVID myths throughout the country it will be very evident over the next 30 days that mitigation policies and behavioral change saved lives PRESS: Interview with Ed Yong of The Atlantic; CNN discussion of 1918 Influenza wuth Anderson Cooper (to be shown in a week); Fireside Chat with Sanjay Gupta for the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health "When Public Health Means Business"
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December 10, 2020 - Global -68,200,000/1,500,000; USA - 15,300,000/289,000 217,000 cases today! 1ardian of the Year" Global USA @rily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people Shown is the rolling 7-day average. The number of confirmed cases is lower than the number of actual cases; the main reason for that is limited testing. Cunear I toc United States Europe Canada South America Asia Africa Australia