A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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November 11, 2020 - Global - 51,800,000/1,300,000; USA - 10,300,000/241,100 140,000 case yesterday; 60,000 hospitalizations; 1300 deaths aw min 1, 10. 11, 12 November 2020 As shown in slide 3 this is the most rapid rise in cases encompassing all age groups and the most rapid rise in hospitalizations increasingly stressing the systems that will increasingly compromise non COVID care BUT it is clear this can be contained with aggressive effort as the UK is doing aver the past 20 days and can be done over the next 30 days here with real and immediate impact This will require a comprehensive Federal response with aggressive support te States to include: . Aggressive communication on not only masking at all times outside of immediate household, physically distancing and hand hygiene but absolute limiting of social interactions ta the immediate household for the next 60 days while we bridge ta the rapid vaccination of the vulnerable populations dramatically decreasing hospitalizations and fatalities ; this is a short term sacrifice to protect the vulnerable . Aggressive re-alignment of Ag testing towards finding and preventing unrelenting silent spread that continues to trigger community spread in waves : ADM Giroir and CDC working with States and Tribal nations . Expanding frequency of LTCF testing and aligning early vaccination into LTCF if immunogenicity is clear in elderly * Ensuring rapid tiering of those most vulnerable to rapid immunization access immediately upon ELA (CDC) . Short term interventions ; in States with demonstrated hospital staffing under threat - restricting indoor dining and briefly limiting areas of congregation without mask (bars, gyms and restricting indoor dining) will be needed as was successful in the USA in the summer Why is this needed now -it is needed now because cases are in a historic rate of rising spread and the rate of daily hospital admissions are not sustainable But we have the tools can change this now and bridge ta long term effective control through vaccination Even with the Veterans Holiday that interferes with reporting we are trending 30K over last week which will lead to 150K cases/day by the end of the week leading to 1M cases/week -- which will overwhelming our hospitals staff as is occurring in the Northern plains All areas of cooling are experiencing log phase community spread and Florida, Texas, Arizona are experiencing a full resurgence Cases are distributed throughout age groups but the most rapid rise in cases and hospitalizations in those over 40-69 and aver 70 26 States are in the red and orange zone and now over 7000 counties are in "high concern" due to cases and speed of rise Fatalities are rising despite the substantial delay from cases to fatalities -- which is nearly 4 weeks -so fatalities will rise rapidly over the next 4 weeks just based on the number of cases we have now 2 November 2020 continued This week we will reach 2X the number of cases of the summer surge which will result in 2X the hospitalizations and fatalities of summer surge There is no evidence that any prior surge --Spring surge or Summer surge is protective in the Fall surge in any state-- there is na evidence that 10-15% baseline prior infection in the population leads ta change in log phase community spread with cooling driving Americans indoors There is no evidence that "allowing" young people te become infected and silently spread the virus without diagnosis and isolation is an effective strategy a5 it leads to widespread silent community spread followed by escalating cases across all age groups, hospitalizations and threats to the health delivery system and fatalities in the cammunity Vaccine quantities despite limited amounts can be used strategically to save the most lives between now and January MAb amounts are also limited and it will be critical to align this limited supply to thase most in need PPE gowns and gloves are limited and we must ask states and hospitals te fully utilize current stocks as relief will be possible after February with vaccinations decreasing hospitalizations Expanded strategic use of the Ag tests is critical ta controlling the current surge : these tests must be used for all individuals in all states with test positive rates aver 5% independent of symptoms =requiring use in symptomatic clients is preventing testing and control of the pandemic. Detection af pre-symptomatic, mild and asymptomatic cases requires both surveillance of community populations (community callege students, majar industries, K-12 teachers etc) and surge community focused testing of under 40 yo ta find and isolate these contagious individuals. Implementation support for aggressive testing of the contagious but asymptomatic population with isolation effectively contained and mitigated spread prior te infection of the more vulnerable community members. Routine testing will be essential in multigenerational households especially in our Tribal Nations, One Federal unified consistent messaging about uniform use of masks, physical distancing and hand washing with profound limitation on indoor gatherings especially with family and friends is essential at this time point = this is about empowerment Americans with the knowledge and data for decision making to prevent community spread and save lives, University through aggressive testing and isolation had 97% less infections and isolated 95% less students Ta change the future this will require an aggressive data driven balance approach that is not being implemented at the state and local level and will require Federal support and guidance to change this PRESS: Good Morning America with Robyn Roberts; Vice News with Liz Landers; Chatham House with Emma Ross and David Heymann; American Philosophical Society Fireside Chat with Mark Thompson; VICE TV i1LE, ADAM CANCRYN and DAN DIAMOND interview; Sinclair TV Broadcasting - Jan Jeffcoat; Reuters healthcare Forum - Julie Steenhuysen; 2020 Ignatius Forum at the National Cathedral (covered by all the TV networks) Politico (see below) Fauci and Biden team steer clear of each other -- for now Biden's transition team must plan for a crisis response without access to essential information about the nation's supply chains and testing supplies. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testifies on Capitol Hill. I Alex Edelman/Pool via AP
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November 13, 2020 - Global - USA - Pandemic surge continues. Curve is exponential Moving along with the deployment of vaccine, Pfizer is putting in for their EUA. There should be 20 million doses of vaccine ready to deploy in December. Moderna will be doing the initial examination of data within days and likely will have comparable efficacy data to Pfizer. Their will have 15 million doses for deployment in December. Thus, 20 + 15 = 40 million doses for 15 - 20 million people in December. Aim to is get nursing homes (NH) covered quickly. 1.5 million people in NHs + 1.5 million staff = 3 million people (6 million doses) • Did major photo shoot with People Magazine Ron Klain called me up. He said that he wanted to ensure me that I have friend in the COS to the POTUS. He asked for suggested candidates for CDC. I recommended: Rochelle Walensky, Ashish Jha, Rich Besser, Carlos Del Rio, Josh Sharfstein (Ron feels that he would be better for FDA - I agreed). POTUS had press conference today with the OWS people (Slaoui and Perna and Azar) - Trump spouted how well we are doing here in the USA. After that he had Slaoui talk about the success of the vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) which is good news PRESS: CBS This Morning;
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November 14, 2020 - Global - 53,200,000/1,300,000; USA - 10,700,000/244,000 Still raging - 184,000 cases yesterday (Friday) and 69,000 hospitalizations; >1400 deaths). Every day is a record. Hospitals soon to run out of ICU beds and personnel. Confirmed Cases [Thousancs) New Daily Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. seereses a a, &¢ ¢ ey LAA e ¢ *€ fF FP & FF oe ¢ a ee ee: a fF Fs PKFZFF ~ eee *fa Day eee Day Mowing Avarage Crazy situation of Trump supporters including "Proud Boys" marching on DC to protest that Biden "stole the election" Did major photo shoot with Bloomberg News in anticipation of being one of the 50 most influential people in 2020. Did the first Saturday morning (10:00 AM) meeting with Janssen, similar to what we did for several weeks with Moderna to help them and encourage them to get good diversity in their clinical trials. For NIH, it was Francis, Cliff, me, Kim Taylor from DMID, Gary Gibbons. For Janssen, it was Paul Stoffels, Johan van Hoof, Peter Ronco, Mathai Mammen, Najat Khan, Stacy Hargraves. ENSEMBLE is the Phase 3 trial for the Janssen candidate. PRESS: ind Jeremy Diamond Joe Biden and Dr. Fauci praise the work of Jesuit Refugee Service Michael J. O'LoughlinNovember 12, 2020
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Nov 14, 2020 Feb 24,2021
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2020-11-15 00:00
Anthony S. Fauci
November 15, 2020 - Surge continues. 244,000 deaths (1300 yesterday); 10,900,000 infections, 167,000 cases yesterday. Big issue now is the logistics of distribution of the vaccine. Locals are saying that the USG has not given them enough money (bullions instead of hundreds of millions) to be able to distribute the vaccine. Crazy Scott Atlas is out there urging people of Michigan to "rise up" against the restrictions put on by the Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer to quell the outbreak. WH Comms still lets him out despite the fact that Alyssa tells me she thinks he is destructive. Clearly someone (POTUS, Meadows) wants him out there:
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November 16, 2020 - Global - 54,300,000/1,300,000; USA - 11,000,000/246,000 Continual surge: 138,000 new infections yesterday. POTUS has no interest at all in the Pandemic. He is focusing on blocking Biden from being POTUS. He is embarrassing the USA. However, 72,000,000 voted for him. Difficult to understand. Craziness has overtaken part of our country (1/2). Jared Kushner did call me up right before the press briefing related to the Moderna vaccine announcement (see below) 16 November 2020 1. All states and major metros now are deteriorating except Hl -- there are 27 states inthe red zane and? states inerange zane-- major high populous states are now significantly deteriorating from MIL IL, IN, GH, PA, to MJ, M4 and western NY, CA-- this surge must be flattened 2. Cempared te last week cates ip 50%, hospitalizations up18% and deaths 26% - this rate of increase will crush the hespitals 3. Ta be erystal clear -- its not just the number of cases but the rate of rise - what we are decumenting today as new cases are reflective of spread 10-14 days age - the rate of rapid rise in cases will tranélate to a proportional rapid rise in hospitalizations and deaths 4, We need to change the rate of rise of cases to change the rapid rise in hospitalizations to preserve haspital capacity--this is no longer about preventing a crisis -- this is a crisis -- thisis about tryina te save as many lives as possible within the crisis 5. Europe hat shown os that the Fall surge can be cantained and hospital capacity sustainedand ifwe act mow we can da the came 6. Thisvaill require a comprehensive Federal response with agaressive support to States bo include: ' Aggressive communication at the WH level masking requirements at all tirnes outside of immediate househeld, physically distancing, hand hygiene AND critically limiting of social interactions te the immediate household for the next 60 days while we bridge to the rapid vaccination of the vulnerable populations decreasing hospitalizations and fatalities : thisis.a short tern sacrifice to protect the vulnerable. We need to decurnent precisely the number of vaccine doses availabh: over the nest ? week fer pilot reall out to LCE, . Aggressive re-alignment of 4g testing towards finding and preventing unrelenting silent spread that cantinues be trigger community spread inwaves > SOM Giroir and COC working with States and Tribal nations . Expanding frequency of LTC testing and aligning early vacelnation late LTCF * Ensuring rapid tiering of those most vulnerable to rapid vaccine immunization access imnovediately upean EUG (COC) . Short term interventions : in States with demonstrated haspitalstaffing under threat - restricting indoor dining and briefly limiting areas of congregation without mask (bars, gyms and restricting indoor dining} will be needed as was successful in the USA in the Summer 7. Withoutanimmediate change we will hit 200,000 cases/day and LSM casesfweek, and over 100,000 inpatients --this is unsustainable Date: 11 s20e0 I New Cases per 100K NEW CASES PER 100,000 IM THE WEEH: I National Picture 'OWE MONTH BEFORE TWO MONTHS BEFORE a eee a re Cases per 100K $20 Comin ast 14 Dury Mobs swe {9 10 to 50 (9 F1b 1h ® (107 te 198 Ee 200 me a08 (£00 of More All states are now showing significant increase in cases, this is the time sequence over the last 6 months. We have not seen a surge in testing in the last 30 days but are seeing deterioration across the country. Confirmed Cases [Thousancs) Lim New Dally Confirmed COVID-19 Cases In the U.S. ae ee) " ee # Fg Q = » Ce. ee vo FF ¥ fetsegesr eg tse evs rt eve 'iin ty ca a Day eee Day Mowing Avarage 00/1,300,000; USA -- ----_--<$--$==$=--$=$<--= thy "ig, *******The administration (POTUS, Pence, Meadows, etc) keep emphasizing that we have never been as well prepared to respond to this pandemic. They refer to hospital beds, ventilators, PPE, etc. They are missing the fact that the pandemic is raging and they are really doing NOTHING to stop its spread. They have essentially given up (see comments above from Mark Meadows) in stopping it and concentrating on having enough supplies to address the cases as they come in. In fact, smaller states (southwest, northwest) are rapidly running out of ICU beds and personnel. They are wrong on both accounts. Freddy Ford (George W. Bush's Chief of Staff) emails me and mentions that W. wants to receive vaccine publicly to indicate his support for vaccines, and could I help out. Sir Elton John and husband David Furnish call me up and want to talk about how we can link the interest in COVID-19with sustained interested in ending the COVID pandemic. Great conversation; they are very "proud of me". I suggest linking testing for COVID to getting tested for HIV and getting people on PrEP. They loved the idea. PRESS: NBC Today Show with Savannah Guthrie; CBS with Jon LaPook; WTOP Radio; Press briefing by Francis Collins, me, Stephane Bancel, Matt Hepburn; Stephen Hoge, John Mascola related to Moderna announcement
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Nov 16, 2020 Feb 24,2071 May?, 2071 Source: Johns Hopkins University CSS--E COVID-19 Data cc ey Ph Feb4,.2020 --> <) May 2, 2021 New Daily Confirmed COVID-19 Cases In the U.S. a0 Z : 200 i z 150 E E on mom yo tm Dal foo oa oom Cal a. = am Mm ot y apy ok toe em gs SRST SS SV SSSR SSCS SSR T ESS SSG SEES E ae Re eRe ees aera es 2020/2021 a4 az aie aja asl ue 4s 4fii India is exploding: Good number today for the USA: The share of daily COVID-19 tests that are positive Shown is the rolling 7-day average. The number of confirmed cases divided by the number of tests, expressed as a percentage. Tests may refer to the number of tests performed or the number of people tested - depending on which is reported by the particular country. Cunear ] toc 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% United States --- Israel 0% United Kingdom Mar 1,2020 Apr 30,2020 Jun19,2020 Aug 8, 2020 Sep 27,2020 Jan5,2021 Feb 24,2021
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Nov 16, 2020
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Nov 16, 2020