Slack / Private Message Drop — page 490

optimum RBD. So this means something almost the same as SC2 exists or existed in a lab without any publication. 3. The only plausible lab origin theory (and possibly the only one that isn't a conspiracy in the event itself) is that someone collected SC2 as part of a collection of samples, was working in through them perhaps to isolate or sequence them and infected themselves (without knowing) and then transmitted (without knowing). But this is simply specific subsection of the zoonotic hypothesis - no different from bat->farmer->market worker. Given it is specific and this would afford a single unique opportunity for the virus to jump, it is vanishingly less likely than the other types of contact humans have with animals. [2021-02-06 07:28:44] [Robert Garry] Damn you are good - so well stated Andrew! [2021-02-06 07:33:11] [Robert Garry] :beer: [2021-02-06 07:40:35] [Robert Garry] For #3 I would add that Alina, Baker et al have recommended stopping all these activities, which of course is 180 degrees opposite to what needs to be done. If you want to leave the world completely vulnerable to SARS3, SARS4 etc, sure stop studying sarbecovirus diversity. [2021-02-06 07:55:38] [Andrew Rambaut] The way to do it may be to leave them with a couple of very specific things that they need to prove if they are to turn out to be right - the major one is that a live virus, collected from the wild, that was SARS-CoV-2 or near-identical to it was in a lab in Wuhan in November 2019. Then just let them obsess about that whilst everyone else moves on. The problem at the moment is that they say all these vague notions about passaging and engineering that seem plausible to people who don't know what is required. [2021-02-06 08:00:57] [Robert Garry] Yes indeed that---is--- it! It's #2 aka Relman - and the pure essence of a conspiracy theory - they have the progenitor and are keeping it a secret because they don't want the world tp know they f'ed up and released it or they are hiding their super secret bioweapons program. [2021-02-06 08:26:47] [Kristian Andersen] No point in spending time explaining it's _not_ a lab escape - just keep reiterating the data supporting it's all natural evolution. Then combine that with three main things (1) lab escape proponents have not put forward a testable hypothesis, (2) the lab hypothesis comes down to a single 'fact' - this happen in Wuhan (that really is all there is to it), and (3) - and while I hate this part, it's effective - they're amateurs. It's not a nice look to be the person calling other scientists idiots, but they are - so I have no issue hammering on #3 these days. [2021-02-06 08:29:58] [Kristian Andersen] The only viable version of the "lab escape" hypothesis that's left, is the one we mention in PO1 - that somebody had the virus at the WIV and popped it into tissue culture. But as we say, that would look identical to natural emergence - no point for scientists trying to figure out if that could have happened, since it's not a scientific question - it lies with intelligence. [2021-02-06 08:35:53] [Andrew Rambaut] Exactly - that was my point 3. [2021-02-06 08:36:14] [Andrew Rambaut]