Tony's Diary Package — page 515

wa 4 December 2020 Data remains unétable but when cases rise despite the decreased reporting across the West Coast, TX, Mid-Atlantic and NEit isa significant red flags -- there are histeric rate of rises in populous states = last week was our highest number of >40 and > 70 new admissions New admissions and inpatientcensus data comes directly and daily from the haspitals so that reperting is more reliable the improvements inthe Nerthern Plains, Rocky Mountain States and Heartland is being directly offset by the surging hospitalization anthe West Coast, Sunbelt, MidAtlantic and NE-- these more populous states will drive this aver the next 2-3 weeks independent of a post Thanksgiving surge as they reflect transmission before Thanksgiving and represent the areatest threat to haspital resilience- the current situationis mot sustainable All trends show that this escalation is occurring-even before the transmission fram Thanksgiving -- we should begin to see the full impact of Thanksgiving starting next week and as warned this Winter surge will be bigger, broader, and more deadly. It will bring together both the Spring and Sunomer surge into one overwhelming threat dramatically increasing hospitalizations and deaths ; even with the innowations this will be catastrophic without increased mitigation now ~ states without adequate public polhcles will have the highest fatallty rates per populathons equal to the Spring rates despite improvements In care due to the lack of mitigation We de nat have enough vaccine fer vulnerable Anvericans to change haspitalization and fatalities trends in Dase-Feb -- we need to kee clear te the Qrmerican people vaccines will haw: animpact inthe Spring but NOT awer the next 3 months. Eechavier change is aur sole intervervticn There are now 33 States in the red (24) and orange (9) zone for hospitalizations of COVID cases = general medical care deteriorates when states enter the red zone= there are more states in this category everyday = decision by COC on wha is immunized tirst will determine the future stabilityafthe hospital system and hospitalization rates - current plan will not change the pandemic dynamics impact on hospitals. The meverment of the surgeinta populous states especially without adequate policies or without individual Americans mitigating will drive fatalities and most of these states donat have adequate mitigation policies and fatalities will continue averaging over 2500/day 17 Kfweek, 70K/menth ata minimum reaching over 330K by New Years and 450K by the end of February without calls for action at the Federal, State, and Local level and using PSAs te combat the myths related to COVID throughout the country Ital be wery evident over the next 30 days that mitigation policies saves lives and the lack of mitigation results in preventable deaths Mew Cases Percent Tes Pew Vata atatate Me Pei Caves -- Fly Maren deere Me Daily Test Ponty New Deaths Hew Hospital oD Bee Tee Selatan he ee ty it Pomitivity Sataatat T.Day Moving Aearage Admissions & rs E Hie pita Adreiione aa i a ( % " ha a PULP te ata LW tatataaala ete" wells ele Rea eae yy yy Me Dely Cetra Ghreveers, Me Caiy Cet = 7-Day Boeing aera GS Deity eoreched Adem Source: COC slabe-reporied data (Cases and deaihs), CELR and Federal Aggregaie Testing Data, Unified Hospital Dataset Enable etaBote de Be So Geet ee ---- I-Oiy Mees bereges