Tony's Diary Package — page 482

The Fall Surge is Different than the Summer or Spring Surge The depth of uncontrolled community spread is measured not only the absolute number of cases and new hospital admissions but the rate of rise of those cases and new admissions. This is the greatest rate of rise we have seen -- we have not increased testing significantly since summer to explain this rate of rise (testing up 10% - cases up 278%). SLIDE 4 and5 The breadth of community spread is measured by the number of rural and urban counties with high and rising cases now 2000/3107, the number of LTCF with + staff moving up each week from 30% to now over 70% in many states, and the number of major metros with significant increases in cases. This is the greatest breadth of infection we have seen. SLIDE 6 The duration of the current surge is measured by the length of time in rapid slope acceleration which predicts both duration of rising hospitalizations and fatalities. The current duration of rapid rise is now entering week 8 across the Northern Plains which is twice the duration to peak in the prior spring and summer surges (4-5 weeks). SLIDE 7 Depth of Fall Surge Daily New Cases in the United States Daily New Cases Cases per Day Data as of 0:00 GMT+0 200k Vi re i 150k ] ra I = a y " = Ok = I ne 1} S A ue I iy = 50k WE in I ! Es I PN at ! fl I I Hill TT ses fl T || I I Pa tel = Vaal 1) ij Al WT wa o a PA h I TURRET TTT ETE EE rh. a & A A £ *. " . Jot ah hy PP ef ah sh Rd es > Pot ae ae pot Pah sk» qe g@ BP a a Po a pf Qf oF a? a eo a wo ee eee ee oe dk a at © Daily Cases (I "+ 7-day moving average Exponential spread: