Tony's Diary Package — page 463

9 November 2020 The weekend is normallya low reporting time yet we reached LOOK cases Sunday contirming the potential for cases reaching 140-L50K this week - there is no evidence of plateauing--this will lead te 1M cases/week -- cases drive hospitalizations and deaths Cases are distributed throughout age groups but the most rapid rise in cases in those over 40-69 and ower 70 26 States are inthe red and orange zone: the highest we have had and as we know rigingscases lead te rising hospitalizatians, inpatient status have surpassed March/April and will surpass the Surnrmer surge rest week Fatalities are rising despite the substantial delay from cases to fatalities --which is nearly4 weeks -- so fatalities will rise rapidly over the next4 weeks just based onthe number of cases we have now The case fatality rates are artificially low at this time due te the rate of rise af cases and the delay in fatalities --this will rmedulate in a4 weeks significantly increasing the CFR especially for thase aver AO. Cases arerapidlyrisingin S03 of all States are red or orange zane- with nowrapid increases again in TX, C4, FL, and N¥ and NJ showing early concerning signs Flerida iaeperbencing a full resurgence as well as Texas, already increasing hospitalizations This is the rest rapid increase of hospitalizations --we will reach historic highs in daily hospitalization this week- across mvulliple states and unrelenting increases This week we will reach 2% the number ot cases of the summer surge which will resultin 2X the hospitalizations and tatalities There is oo evidence that any pricr surge -- the Spring surge or the Sumner surge is protective in the current Fall surge in any state--thore is noevidenor that 10-15% baseline prior infection in the population leads to change in log phase community spread There is no evidence that "allowing" young people ta become infected and silently spread the virus without diagnosis and isolation tar 10 days is an effective strategy that leads ta anything but widespread silent communityspread followed by eecalating. cases, hospitalizations and tatalities in the community. Patterns are the same. Weekends see a dip in cases due to lack of weekend reporting. Then we get into the week and we break daily records. Country still on fire and getting worse. 122,000 cases yesterday! POTUS still insisting that the GOP won the election. Completely alternate universe. Kayleigh and GOP Senators (Graham, McConnell, Ted Cruz) all prostituting themselves by supporting the POTUS's baseless claims. Heading towards a constitutional crisis.