Tony's Diary Package — page 460

10. & November 2020 Cases will reach 140-150K this week - there is no evidence of plateauing -- this will lead to 1M cases/week Cases are rapidly rising in 50% of all States are red or orange zone - with now rapid increases again in TX, CA, FL, and N¥ and NJ showing early concerning signs Even with weekend reporting WI, MI, IL, IN, OH report record high cases that will lead to record hospitalizations and increased fatalities This is the most rapid increase of hospitalizations -- we will reach historic highs in daily hospitalization this week-- across multiple states and unrelenting increases This week we will reach 2M the number of cases of the summer surge which will result in 2X the hospitalizations and fatalities as the summer surge There is no evidence that any prior surge --the Spring surge or the Summer surge is protective in the current Fall surge in any state--there is no evidence that 10-15% baseline prior infection in the population leads te change in log phase community spread There is no evidence that "allowing" young people to become infected and silently spread the virus without diagnosis and isolation for 10 days is an effective strategy that leads to anything but widespread silent community spread followed by escalating cases, hospitalizations and fatalities in the community. Universities have shown us that it is possible ta control the silent community spread and change the follow on cascade with mitigation and testing. There are always models and concepts that sound and look good on paper that with first contact with the reality on the ground fail. Itis not possible to prevent the surge in hospitalization and the fatalities that follow with the approach outlined in the Barrington Declaration as it fails to flatten the curve and fails to protect the hospitals from becoming overwhelmed. Itis clear. It is also clear what needs to happen now to change the current projections Cases are now exploding throughout the country. Every day a new record is set!! Clearly, the Atlas strategy that once an area is hit hard, they are protected against the next surge is utter nonsense. Areas are surging that got hit previously and so no herd immunity with 25% of people infected. Received a call at 7:45 PM from Albert Bourla (CEO of Pfizer) informing me that the DSMB looked at the data of 94 infections (first interim look) from their mRNA vaccine and the results were 4 infections in vaccine and 90 in placebo for a 95% efficacy!!!! This will be announced tomorrow.