Tony's Diary Package — page 438

31 October 2020 I. We are entering the most concerning and mostdeadhy of this pandemic, the most community spread, the most rapid acceleration of hospitalizations both everwhelming of comounityvurban and raral boepitals, inadeq@ate human capacity, inability te load balance and crisis care ofall patients incholing son-COVID patients leading to increasing mortality without mach more aggressive action from messaging. to testing. to surging personnel around the cowmtey prior te the erieis pariot Test posittrity rates contmue to rise dramatically across the country = the weekly number of tests performed cs flat 2, Casesare nipidly rising ia early 3% ofall USA comaties the lagheet wanker of county hotepote we havescen with this pak 4.0 12 States have both ved category teet positivity aud cases: 10 Sates are on the orange zone for teat positivity andied for cases §. 0 States wath greater than 3000) day and increasing mpedhy= we wall reach over 110-1 20K cases! day next week Preday & Hospitalizationsare rising in all states (red, orange, yellow, light green, excep! ) anal across all age groups except <15-- most dramatic inerease in 270) Ts Fatality rates in people over 70 remainsat 11%. Increased nceess te marvel therapeutics is ormtical. & Cases will continue to hil all time bighs week over week because the core iuilgation efforts aml targeted teatime foraayaplamate ileetion areal Geeta resulting in contemed and escalating community spread leading to imereasing hospitalizations amd dntalities. 9S. Expanded strategic use of the Ag tests-vall be critical to contredimp the current surge : these tests nnast be used. for all individuals in all states with test positive niles over 3% gidepemdent of eyiiploue --requamig wee eyplomale clicwle me preventing adequate teeing aul cowtrel of the pademic. I. Detection af prespouptomiatec, mak and asypptamintic cases will require both sentinel surveillance of community populations (eomnvaty college students. miajor iadusies. K-12 teachers ete} as welll as routine feeling of ede yo te God and molate theses contagious aubviduale. We weed to use Ag teelemore witehy. The sequence of events avuel stop with the intial sent spread wath aggressive eeulael surveillance testing. 12. Agpressive testing of the contagious bat asymptomatic population with wolation effectively contamed and matigated spread prior te infection of the nore vuluerable community avanbers. Routiws bestng wall be evsential in mubtigewerational houscholds capecally m our Tribal Natans. 13. One Federal eeaifled consiteat mesagiog alent wilforn ie of masks, pliysbeal ditanelag and hasd washing with peated Hendtathen an inl gatherings expecially with family and friends is essential at this tinve poiet --this is about empowerment Agvericags with the knowledge and data for declan miaklog te prevent commumity spread anal cave lives. 14. From Ualversttleswe lane heared bow to best strategheally to prevent epread, from oar dalogue in etateswe lave learned how to craft messages for impact --what is weeded gow is translation ofthis knowledge inte action forfpact. Public wealth officers in the Gell are exhausted and will need sepport and a clear road map. Just based on current cases and rate Daily New Cases in the United States of rise, hospitalizations will accelerate over the next 4 weeks Daily New Cases and mortality over the next 6 weeks Cases per Day bataasofooocwT+a and that is if we plateau today Leak a a a (which is not possible). we F: LOG > ia oO Pik FI z & 50k I G Wily MIE .* I I I I z i ae ee ta oF ag a Aa Sa a i a a Pt et oF ge gh ah gh gh hog PP Pe a at of? ot oF ® Daily Cases CO > 7-day moving average AREA OF CONCERN CONTINUUM Dee: ed Area of Concern Continuum by County The reo? Concem Coninuum (CISC) Budi cess COMmMmUnnEs asIney Inna gh Skeaesice the epackerris. There I 290C T2020 ae? Sore based On Lurrentandrecernn airy of poses t Canmandiesing datatorthe Iocan (1) Lewiburden--cornmiiindbes will minimal ac ivity 43) Mecerabe Burien--Coneriy ies ein mde paki oo ity (Emerging Hotspot--commu nites with ahigh likelihood to become: Pros RS 1 Ie eee 1-7 hays 4) Hotpet--coMmmun ies inal have reached anes of dees acivity condemned asbeing ofhigh burden 9) Sustainadifetspot--communfies that havehadahagh sustained CER Uren) and ery Be AP SK ioe epee NeeCare msnure limEaions (Sigh Burden --Resaving --conmmunbes inal were necerdy identified ashot pots and ae-nowimeenving (itedarate Burdan=Resoiing-- commun ties Phat hane-a Mode aielevel of buder, bul aedemorei airy mprivenent Senin Soumeneinincs sides for marciniomaion ? z i Bag § eiiiaie Pe RS PS RH A Reh Pus Bits) Bes) Almost at the 100,000 per day level that I predicted at the Senate Hearing a few months ago: