Tony's Diary Package — page 415

20 October 2020 have summarized the country month over month since rbd June whieh tells a very clear story. This the most diffuse community spread in both urban and rural counties we have experianced and we are 1-2 weeks from these new cases rapidly filling hospitalsin urban and rural areas making load balancing difficult significantly straining the hospital system and 2-3 weeks from escalating fatalities. UCG needs ta escalate readiness this week. We are on the same slope as the summer surge but at a much higher baseline of infection 26K vs 21K which will lead to potentially BOK cases/dayrapidly. With current case rate expansion we will achieve the areatest number af daily cases since the pandemic began this week or next. We are now Seeing concerning trends in the Sunbelt in states that stopped most af their mitigationeffarts 2-4 weeks age The states organized by red, orange and yellowstatus. There are only 19 states inthe green zones and their cases are alse increasing. Thisis not due to increased testing but broad and ever increasing conmmunity. There are mo states, regions, or communities with enough prior COVID intection te provide any substantial protection fram newecommunity spread which will lead to hospitalizations and tatalities. Thisis very evident by the rising cases again across the Sunbelt and moving into the Marth East. This sequence af events rust slop with the initial silent spread with agaressive sentinel survediance Lesting. Ggaressive testing in the contagious but asymptomatic population with isolation effectively contained and mitigated prior ta intectionaf the more vulnerable community members. Providing appropriate isolation options fram nvultigeneration households will be key. We have found from careful analysis, modelling and triangulation of all the data that community spreadean be controlled wit heut a lockdown as we have done but the tine to act is critical ard must be with the original detection of the silent spread, ensuringinfected individuals know how to limit their infection of others and with messaging on universal masking, physicaldistancing, and essential limitation of publicand private gatherings indoors especially small gatherings with friends and family,