Tony's Diary Package — page 408

Confirmed Cases (Thousands) 16 October 2020 Test positivity, cases, hospitalizations and fatalities continue to rise week over week without evidence of containment due to insufficient mitigation in and by the community. In full log phase of spread (broad community spread) resulting in infection of vulnerable individuals in the community - unrelenting in the heartland and the upper north west and mid west. There are early signs of deterioration in the North East but with focused testing targeting the silent spread could prevent the extension to older individuals in the community by containing the infections. This sequence of events must stop with the initial silent spread that can be effectively contained and mitigated. We have found from careful analysis, modelling and triangulation of all the data that community spread can be controlled without a lockdown as we have done but the time to act is critical and must be with the original detection of the silent spread with messaging on universal masking, physical distancing, and essential limitation of private gatherings as public spaces have become more consistently physically distanced and masked. Small clusters are rapidly and silently spreading to ever larger community outbreaks -- this spread is preventable with ageressive mitigation including aggressive sentinel surveillance testing to find the silent spread and immediately isolate asymptomatic cases : this is not about shut downs or lock downs but using the clear evidence based mitigation that has worked -- which requires behavioral changes both in public and private and clear high level messaging. The Sunbelt contributes daily deaths showing the delay between improvement in the pandemic picture and continued fatalities. Fatalities will rise across the US in the next week and will not be offset by declines in the Sunbelt. Due to poor community mitigation efforts these fatalities will continue to rise but could be prevented with a call to action. There is an absolute necessity of the Administration to use this moment to ask the American people to wear masks, physical distance and avoid gatherings in both public and private spaces. New Daily Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. rt] Pe sin yt S J a3 / y / l he sa VA VA 'a Ua em f M La M4 Palin bs " NAT P ear " o alll ee hel J d 7, oH f " a Fa] it) E rs a = is th my A be i a is fe me a ie an a Ty Ay r a oe by a ee a ee Se ee i Oo) mes? Ory Movie Aviiape Cases continue to climb: October 17, 2020 (Saturday) Got call at 5:53 AM from Deb Birx who reported to me about yesterday's activities at the WH. Atlas did not come to White House. However, at the "huddle" in the