Tony's Diary Package — page 399

ba Percent positivity (%) wae National === Red States w=se= Orange States === Yellow States === Light Green States Dark Green States 15-Mar 15-Apr 15-May 15-Jun 15-Jul 15-Aug 15-Sep 12 October 2020 This is the most serious combination of factors we have seen since the epidemic began. There are conceming trends across the United States in nearly every state above the sunbelt where temperahires are dropping. Many states in the heartland and upper midwest and MT, WY, ND. SD. ID, UT are reaching all time highs in case members and this is expamding to OO, IL, IN.OH MON, WM and nearly every states has increasing cases aud deeply concerming trends. Prior experience with the virus in the state is wot resulting in any level of significant "protection", MND, MT, WY all have populations size similar te VT, NH, and Maine and bad test positivity rates equal to the these North East States 2 months age and are mow in fall leg spread -- this could move in the same way in VT. NH, ME. Low population densities amd small metros are mot protection trem viralepread in the community aud leads to increased hospitalizations and deaths Small clusters are rapidly and silently spreading to ever larger comunity outbreaks -- this spread is preventable with aggressive mitigation including aggressive ecutive] surveillance testing te find the silent spread aud inumediately isolate asymptomatic cases: this is wot about shutting down but using the clear evidence based mitigation that hae worked -- which requires behavioral changes both im public amd private. The Sunbelt contiones to contribute significant daily deaths showing the significant delay between improvement in the pandemic picture and contimed tatalities. Fatalities will begin to rise across the US in the next 1-2 weeks and willoot be offset by declines in the sunbelt. There if an absolute necessity of the Administration to wee this moment of the WH outbreaks to ask the Anverican people to wear masks. physical distance and avold all gatherings in both poblc amd private spaces -- if this level of virus moves indoors with the rate of log spread the US conld be at over LOUK cases daily by the beginning of November. There needs to be a personal call to action this week. This ismot about shopping but about small dinwer parties creating spreading events.