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Gates Package, p.1146 · gates:exh:00556
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GATES BOOK COMMENTS
General comments, to be followed by chapter-specific comments.
This is a powerful book that is very well written, to be understood by average people. It is well
organized, clear, conversational, sometimes folksy, and it respects its readers and engages in an intimate
way. The science is explained at a level that is probably optimal, "not too hot, not too cold", and the
opinions reflect serious understanding of the scientific, public health, and societal issues associated with
trying to prevent and control pandemics.
Many of my comments relate to addressing the complexities of the challenges. While I am sure that
some problems can be solved by money, organization, and an entrepreneurial spirit, there are other
challenges that currently seem, and may well prove to be, intractable. This might be addressed in a
sober way.
In this vein, many of the stated goals, in Chapter 9 and elsewhere, are aspirational, but readers may
wonder: OK, yes, but how do we get there? This is most apparent in the several discussions of the
GERM force. It's a great idea that many have already floated in the past 5+ years, but the key question
is: HOW DO WE ESTABLISH IT? Some specific ideas about this would be very helpful. Such a force must
be international, cooperative, collegial, and with broad national and public buy-in. In an era in which
international squabbling and non-cooperation is more notable than international cooperation for the
common good (see for example, climate change), how to proceed with this idea?
Introduction
Page 16, bottom para: a 5-year time frame seems far too optimistic for respiratory pathogens
Page 17, top few lines: an issue here to be addressed is that many pandemic pathogens probably spread
silently for many weeks or months before the first detection (e.g., pandemic flu, SARS and SARS-CoV-2),
so how do you find something like this before a single case of symptomatic or out of the ordinary
disease is detected? It is worth noting that had we been doing extremely enhanced viral surveillance in
2009, detecting multiple genomes of the pandemic flu virus, we would have had no way of recognizing it
as such, because we have no way of recognizing viral properties such as pandemic transmissibility from
the genomes alone.
Page 17, para 6, approval of drugs and vaccines requires a minimal time frame rarely less than 6 months,
even when the recipe is agreed on, as with seasonal flu vaccines. There isn't much that can be done to
lessen that time frame short of approval based on incomplete data that might miss catching serious
problems.
Page 18, line 7, the time frame was LESS than 12 months, I think closer to 11 months
Page 18, general, I think it desirable to pull back a bit on implying that success with the two mRNA
vaccines provides lessons for future pandemics. The mRNA success, while real, may be a one-off thing,
since other mRNA vaccines haven't worked. Moreover, the short-term protection, easy breakthrough,
and need for boosters, makes that vaccine more of a quick interim solution, not an ultimate solution for
pandemic disease control. Even successes have important limitations that should be appreciated. This