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Gates Package, p.1064 · gates:exh:00474
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quickly can a diagnostic test for the pathogen be developed, manufactured at a high volume, and
delivered wherever it is needed? How well, and how quickly, can the government get accurate
information out to the public? How do local health officials handle quarantines? And--as we
now know can happen--what if supply chains are cut, local health agencies make poor decisions,
and political leaders interfere?
They would establish a system for reporting cases and running genetic sequencing on the
pathogen. They would recruit volunteers to try out nonpharmaceutical measures, modify them
based on how the disease spreads, and understand the economic impact they would have during a
real emergency.
And if the pathogen spreads through human contact with animals, the exercise would
evaluate a government's ability to dispose of the animals. Suppose it's an avian flu spread by
chickens:* Because so many people rely on chickens for their livelihood, they'll be reluctant to
slaughter the birds on the off chance they might spread a flu. Does the government have the
money to compensate them for their losses, and a system for doing so?†
To make the exercise even more realistic, software would generate surprise events from
time to time, throwing a wrench into the plan to see how everyone responds. Software would
also be used to track the oerall simulation and record actions for later review.
* In November 2020, the Danish government ordered the culling of 15 million mink out
of concern about a COVID mutation that might move from them to humans.
† If you want more detail from experts on what an exercise might involve, see the WHO
document "A Practical Guide for Developing and Conducting Simulation Exercises to Test and
Validate Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plans," available at who.int.