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Gates Package, p.908 · gates:exh:00318
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(Economist)
December 2021. Excess deaths help us account for all causes of mortality greater than
what would've been expected without the pandemic. (Economist)
Many of the countries with the lowest rates (near zero or negative)--Australia, Vietnam,
New Zealand, Taiwan, and South Korea--did three things well early in the pandemic. They
tested a large share of the population quickly, isolated people who tested positive or had been
exposed, and made a plan for detecting and dealing with cases that may have come across their
borders.
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Containing COVID in Vietnam. With a population of 96 million people, Vietnamese
officials implemented measures for detecting, isolating, and preventing new cases from
emerging throughout the country during the first year of the pandemic. (Exemplars in
Global Health)
Unfortunately, early success can be hard to maintain. Relatively few people in Vietnam
were vaccinated for COVID--partly because of the limited supply of vaccines, and partly
because vaccines didn't seem as urgent when the country had done such a good job controlling
the virus. So when the much more transmissible variant Delta came along, there were relatively
few people in Vietnam who had any immunity, and the country was hit especially hard. Its rate
of excess deaths went from just over 500 per million people in July 2021 to nearly 1,500 per
million people in December--though even at the higher rate, Vietnam was still doing better than
the United States.2
The second thing the data makes clear is that, once the infection got to a large portion of
the population, there was essentially no pattern to explain which countries kept down their
excess death rates and which did not. The experts at IHME have looked at everything: income