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Dec. 26, 2020 at 8:00 a.m. EST Add to list
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December 27, 2020 - Global - 79,200,000/1,800,000; USA - 18,900,000/331,000 Deb's note for the day: Hospitalizations had stablized and specific metros were significantly declining so we will be able to see a post-Holiday surge in cases and hospitalizations and predict depth of surge impact by 10 Jan. -- 19,100,000/332,200 1. Data will be unstable for the next 2 weeks and decreases cannot be interpreted with both Christmas and New Years but will be tracking new hospital admissions 2. 24 States did not report yesterday on critical pandemic parameters and will cause a surge in cases and fatalities due to this reporting issue in the next few days 3. Summarizing the current state of the pandemic : overall the USA is at a high plateau for cases and hospitalizations and due to lagging fatalities reporting in improving states we won't see the fatality plateau until the next 2 week s Some areas going done and others are still surging. Big question will be whether we will have a post-holiday (Christmas and New Year surge). Letter from VP Pence - December 18 Photo with VP Pence - December, 2 Raising concern about what Trump might do as a last-ditch effort to prevent Biden from assuming the Presidency. He is already calling for demonstrations in Washington at the time of the January 6 ratification of the electoral votes by the Congress. He could induce riots and then invoke martial law to "control" the riots. Also, he could not sign the Omnibus budget bill and cause a government shutdown that could interfere with the inauguration PRESS: CNN State of the Union with Dana Bash; The Guardian: Interview 'New disease, no treatment, no cure': how Anthony Fauci's fight against Aids prepared him for Covid-19 Benjamin Ryan
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December 28, 2020 - Global - 79,900,000/1,800,000; USA - 19,100,000/332,200 Daily New Cases in the United States Daily New Cases Cases per Day Data as of 0:00 GMT+0 300k 250k 200k 150k 100k = : aah iii i ~~ g? Pooh FEF LLP KY OE ee a Daily Cases @ j-day moving average o --- 7-day moving average Oo Novel Coronavirus Daily Cases y POTUS changed his mind and signed the Omnibus budget bill avoiding a closure of USG. Spoke with Deb. This AM (this is one of many early morning 6:00 AM calls that I have with her just to check in and schmooze about what is going on. She is concerned (probably correctly so) that the Biden people think that there is some COVID-19 response structure here and there is not. There is her and backup from CDC and she railed on about how bad the CDC is (I agree with her in part). She feels that they completely blew COVID-19 by acting like it was influenza and they plugged in the "syndromic" model where you follow and test only those who are symptomatic since it took them forever to admit that COVID-19 was spread symptomatically and was very much different from influenza. Summarizing the 3 surges Green spring Orange summer Blue fall to winter The rate of rise or angle of the fall surge is nearly twice the overlapping spring and summer angle. The length of line is illustrative of the duration from baseline to plateau. The fall surge is 2 to 3 times longer. All of this suggests that the fall/winter surge is more aggressive and may indicate that there is already a US more transmittable strain. Much more real time sequencing needs to be done. -- 19,200,000/334,000 NATIONAL TIME SERIES New Canes Viral (RT-POR) Lab Test Positivity 1h I a i z E E LEGER ESR EE Peer ye RR pare Re ER eee oPSEPE PREECE SSeS) PUR RE REESE EERE Eee MS Cady Viral OU-PCRI Lab tent Peaitiety = = T-Dey Mowing Aeerage New Hospital Admissions edhe ea ee Saye Bob ghd hd, ee soother Uw Boe ee Poe Sa Ba ee ee a ee ia ann ae See Se ee Se Be bs Bano De gt en Ba Ey ae Ba BaBeen a ee ee ee a a Be Ea Se See ew hn ae So De Boe le Be Eee ee Mn Duly Cosireved Akniisions © -- P-Dap Pirviny Averages me Cuily Deaths = -- 7-Day Moving Average mam Davy enpected Adwwnsione Source: CDC slaleveporied dala (cases and deaths), Unified Testing Dataset, Unified Hospilal Dataset, PRESS: Taped podcast with ABC Jonathan Karl for later viewing;
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December 29, 2020 - Global - 79,900,0900/1,800,000; USA - 19,200,000/334,000 1.Most concerning are where COVID admissions are rising now showing significant community spread just prior to the Holidays and could have the most significant post Holiday surge - this is TX, GA, SC, NC, WVA. POTUS in Florida playing golf. Massive explosion in Nashville, TN - he has no comment at all. Case now at 19,000,000 with 332,000 deaths and he has not mentioned COVID-19 in days/weeks. Met by Zoom with Dr. Jeong, Eun-kyeong, Commissioner of Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency to discuss ongoing and future collaborations in COVID-19. They were part of the ACTT therapeutic trials. Call with Peggy Hamburg. She is concerned about what she is hearing that Janet Woodcock will be FDA Commissioner and that David Kessler will be the "FDA person in the White House". She has trouble with both of them. She is feeling left out in that the Biden people are not conferring with her about anything. Am getting concerned that the administration of vaccines is lagging far behind the projected number of 40 million by end of December. They have actually administered only ~2 million this far with 2 day left in the year. Letter from Michael R. Bloomberg to Dr. Spoke with Adam Silver (NBA Commissioner) about rest of NBA season. They have come out of the "bubble" and wanted my take on what the immediate future looked like regarding infections. They have done very well and have had to cancel only 1 game. David Ho is helping to advise them and was on the Zoom call. Continue to get calls from Jeff Zientz just checking facts and policy with me when Biden is about to go out and make a speech Rounds with Clinical staff during COVID: man in America, »r Bill SKM_C754e2012291 8270.pdf PRESS: CNN New Day with Jim Sciutto; TV interview with Steve Clemons - "The Bottom Line" shown on Al Jazeera English; NPR Radio with Joe Palca Trump ends Obama's 12-year run as most admired man: Gallup
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2020-12-30 00:00
Anthony S. Fauci
December 30, 2020 - Global USA AREA OF CONCERN CONTINUUM Date: tziaeize20 Area of Concern Continuum by County The Areas "4 Stier ial Pain rare - 28DEC2020 sre 7 possible ACC Cassifications based on current and recent history of case and testing data forihe location: (T) LowBurden--commniundigs with mriniceal activily (2) Moderate Burden--communties with moteratadissase activity (Emerging -- communities with ahigh likelihood to become hotspots in the next 1-7 days (@jHotspot-- communities that have reached athreshold of disease activity considered asbeing ofhigh burden (S)Sustained Hotepot-- communities that have had a high sustained case burden and may be higher nsk for experiencing healthcare resource limitations (6) High Burden--Resoting--conmunites that wererecently identified as hotspots and are nowimpnoving (F)Moderate Gurden-- Resolving -- communities that have a moderate level of burden, but are demonstrating improvement See Data Sources viethods slides for more information. sen 9 7) x B20} a Bisa} Pa es! & 1a] = SI) Be I wm yt on Heder finer aor Fiesotwineg at = ad : = . oe . . Foti Bua a Map un ka tay hen kr Hae ter Pionero Bid = (S026 Fhe SG Sb I ID 3G 36H General Gus Perna asked to speak with me this Am (7:30 AM) for advice and "comfort". There has been criticism about the roll-out of vaccines. @0 million doses were promised by the end of December and we only have 11 million. Also, only 2-3 million have been administered (the latter is not his responsibility). He realizes that there is disappointment and wants advice. I told him that above all he needs to be transparent and honest and not try to coverup any deficiency. This is a big operation and he should expect bumps in the road. He bemoaned that on the battlefield when he was on the radio he could tell from the background sounds and the "vibes' on the radio how the battle was going. With vaccines, even on conference calls, he really cannot get a good feel for what all the players are doing and how honest they are being. He does not trust Pfizer; he thinks that they keep moving the goal posts. He likes Moderna. He was very grateful for the call. Senator Marco Rubio is acting like a real asshole. He is publicly calling me a liar about my statement in the NY Times about my assessments for the percent vaccinations needed for herd immunity. I had said that I modified my assessment of 70 to 75% to be 70 to 85% because we really did not know the precise number and I wanted to encourage people to get vaccinated to achieve herd immunity. Actually, I made that change by extrapolating the measles situation where measles vaccine is 98% effective whereas SARS-CoV-2 is 94-95% effective. Measles begins to lose herd immunity at around 89-90% of population vaccinated and so I brought up the SARS-CoV-2 to 85% with the range being 70 to 85%. For that he called me a "liar" Big hypocrite as he continues to kiss Trump's ass - the world's biggest liar. -- 19,700,000/341,200 "Sen. Marco Rubio: Dr. Fauci lied about coronavirus -- I am appalled by his arrogance" Placing blind faith in unelected celebrity scientists has its limits, and we must not be afraid to call them out
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December 31, 2020 - Global - 81,500,000/1,800,000; USA - 19,700,000/341,200 1. Most concerning are rising case counts during a dramatic decline in testing - CA, TX, FL and where COVID admissions are rising consistent with significant undetected community spread prior to the Holidays and potentially the most significant post Holiday surge - this is FL, TX, GA, SC, NC, WVA. 2. New admissions rising in OK, TX, AL, MS, GA, FL, NY, MA, WVA, KY High Plateau in CA, AZ, NM, AR, TN, MD, CT, NJ 3. States with the most hospital staff stress are those states in the dark red zone and still rising - CA, AZ, GA and those states in the red zone and still rising - OK, TX, MS, AL, SC, TN, DE, NY 4. The Coasts (80% of the population) are now driving the increasing cases, hospitalizations and deaths. PRESS: NBC Today Show with Craig Melvin; WBAL Baltimore Radio; MSNBC with Andrea Mitchell; Confirmed Cases (Thousands) S00 25) 1s iit Bl Barer itor en AT ES FEF ee New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. roe 3 x Cay eee Daty Mowing Avarage 0,000,000/345,000 he en 0 Day Mowing Avoraga CA, AZ, GA and
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January 1, 2021 - Global - 81,900,000/1,800,000; USA - 20,000,000/345,000 Records continue to be broken with 125,000 hospitalizations and >3000 deaths. GOP and Trump planning to challenge the January congressional certification of the electoral votes. Disgraceful assault on democracy. • Spoke with Mitt Romney this AM who ran by me an OpEd he wants to submit pointing out the lack of success and weaknesses of the vaccine rollout plan and suggestions of how to improve it. Clearly there is a problem (see below) Problem with vaccine rollout. Plan was to have 40 million doses delivered by December 31 with 20 million in the arms and 20 million in reserve. This far 14 million delivered and 2.7 million in the arms. Clearly, they need to catch up. There is no central "plan" similar to no plan for testing and no plan for PPE. 1. Most concerning are rising case counts during a dramatic decline in testing - CA, TX, FL and where COVID admissions are rising consistent with significant undetected community spread prior to the Holidays and potentially the most significant post Holiday surge - this is FL, TX, GA, SC, NC, WVA. 2. States with the most hospital staff stress are those states in the dark red zone and still rising - CA, AZ, GA and La + = E= COMMRMED CASES OM 4 TOY ROWING AWEEEGE 16000 + 14000 + loo COMPRMED CASES OM 4 TOY ROWING AWEEEGE + OOOO + Lia = wi + eno + OK, TX, MS, A -- 20,100,000/347,000 CONFIRMED CASES DAILY IN NEW YORK-NEWARK-JERSEY CITY, NY¥-NJ-PA 7 DAYROLLING AVERAGE MEW CASES PEA Lone? ae I aziwestty wei I 4 Others Savsercet Cosinty, Hl Pdorris County, Pll Arecicln ned Courrtg, BY Mionrouth Counte. Al Oresn County, fll Aichreard County, He inion County, Hl avons ie Coaunty, Hl Hudbar Caurtp, Au Pal cidleces Courttp, Bl Bergen Coutts. Ml Come County, Hl Aiew Yark Gauri, iit Weatchcaler Courts, MY Grarc Courtty, Ay Pass oeu Coutts, HF Suifalk Courts, MY lings Coury, Balt Quceta Counts, Mr CONFIRMED CASES DAILY IN LOS ANGELES-LONG BEACH-ANAHEIM, CA 7 DAYROLLING AVERAGE MEW CASES PEA Lone? ae I aztiwentiy ave I ME Grange County, CA ces aragelies Coney, 0, 0,300,000/350,000 those states in the red zone and still rising - OK, TX, MS, AL, SC, TN, DE, NY 3. The Coasts (80% of the population) are now driving the increasing cases, hospitalizations and death
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January 2, 2021 - Global - 82,400,000/1,800,000; USA - 20,100,000/347,000 Deaths now averaging around 3000 per day. Hospitalizations continue to break records. Trump totally focused on disrupting the transfer of power and declaring the election invalid. Big day coming up on January 5 when the Congress certifies the Electoral Votes.
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January 3, 2021 - Global - 82,600,000/1,800,000; USA - 20,300,000/350,000 Confirmed Cases {Thousands} a & os a o EToF il Mi ae a eee ae e be £ New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. Ml g ir walle wh in mee Mil MS Daly mmm 7 Day Beng: Anscrreng Bry e¢ 'a, meen Day Moving Aver ago 1.6 Data remains unstable but early signals are increasing test positivity (49) states and in some states rising cases - tracking closely. Concerned about upcoming post-holiday surge 1. Reporting remains unstable and will create this current valley and peak (slide 3⁄4) due to reporting alone - watching slope of rise. 2. Testing is down 40% over the past 7 days creating a high admission rate/case across all age groups and any increase in cases concerning 3. 49 states have rising test positivity and 17 rising cases despite reporting issue - this normal precedes a significant surge is hospitalizations Total deaths have not reached 350,000!! Tweet from Trump: Confined Cases (Thousamds] Donald J. Trump @ @realDonaldTrump - 44m ooo Something how Dr. Fauci is revered by the LameStream Media as such a great professional, having done, they say, such an incredible job, yet he works for me and the Trump Administration, and I am in no way given any credit for my work. Gee, could this just be more Fake News? © 14.1K Tl 7A3Ak ) 564K ra 0,600,000/350,700 New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. Ey pelzd ai ) Mit A . y fii ME Os eee oy Moving Avorage = eee 0 Dy Mowing Averogo it il ! HA I] i i iD i = I Fin a YM dey tay ty tp, 'iy ep a 2020/2021 Got a call from Jeff Zients wanting to confirm the I still am in favor of Janet Woodcock for FDA Commissioner. He was getting some negative signals from some people that she was involved in the EUA for hydroxychloroquine. I explained to Jeff that this was really Mark Meadows pressuring Steve Hahn who caved in. PRESS: ABC "This Week" with Martha Raddatz; NBC "Meet the Press" with Chuck Todd;