A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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September 10, 2020 - 10 September 2020 Data remains unstable and spikes will reflect reporting that did not occur over the 3 days Holiday weekend reporting always unstable but I included those states with high cases and high % positive organized by both high cases and high test positivity, followed by high test positivity and then high cases despite low reporting over 3 day and these are 7 day averages so they include 3 low days yet remain an issue Next are the metro profiles again 7 day rolling averages where they remain at a high plateau despite the holiday reporting -- theses profiles are of our most persistent continued community transition Increasing hospitalizations' 100 cases continues and is widening indicating undertesting in areas of community spread : 14 republican states and 6 democratic states have significant declines in testing rates since the new CDC guidance was published Hospitalizations beginning to rise in some college towns where students returned 3-4 weeks ago Fatalities now rising in the heartland : fatalities should continue to decline over the next 4 weeks if outbreaks can be limited and not spread to local communities and hometowns : data willbe unstable this week due to reporting Universities with strong plans for testing and isolation are remaining open -- others continue to close and send students homes -- this is resulting in students going underground and "refusing" to test for fear their university will close or that they will be sent home Universities need to ensure students are tested, isolated and cared for on campus or in COVID designated areas to ensure containment and prevent spread both inte local community and to hometowns The Heartland and ND, 5D needs to increase mitigation efforts or will drive hospitalizations and deaths A -- 6,400,000/191,400 Did podcast and PSAs with Dennis Quaid Gave Grand Rounds to the Harvard Hospitals (all of them together). Much positive feedback PRESS: Interview and photo shoot with Alice Park for TIME Magazine
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September 11, 2020 - Global - 28,000,000/905,000; USA - 6,400,000/191,400 11 September 2020 1. Data remains unstable and spikes will reflect reporting that did not occur over the 3 days 2. Test positivity is rising in WV, ND, UT, WI, MD, DE, VA, PA, MO, NH, MI, CT 3. Test positivity is rising in San Diego, Madison, Champaign, Grand Rapids, Philly, Baltimore, SLC, DC, Pitt most related to colleges and tracking any spread into communities or home towns. We are hearing of student's that have been hospitalized from campuses -- not sure where the slide yesterday during press conference came from or how it was validated 4. Hospitalizations beginning to rise in some college towns where students returned 3-4 weeks ago 5. Increasing hospitalizations/100 cases continues and is widening indicating undertesting in areas of community spread : 14 republican states and 6 democratic states have significant declines in testing rates since the new CDC guidance was published 6. Fatalities now rising in the heartland : fatalities should decline over the next 4 weeks if outbreaks can be limited and not spread to local communities and hometowns : data will be unstable this week due to reporting 7. Universities with strong plans for testing and isolation are remaining open -- others continue to close and send students homes -- this is resulting in students going underground and "refusing" to test for fear their university will close or that they will be sent home 8. Universities need to ensure students are tested, isolated and cared for on campus or in COVID designated areas to ensure containment and prevent spread both into local community and to hometowns 9. The Heartland and ND, SD needs to increase mitigation efforts or will drive hospitalizations and deaths Daily New Cases in the United States Daily New Cases Cases per Day Data as of 0:00 GMT+0 LOOk 50k I ili ga ila i ig aay ER ai Ul a Ng a a te a "te * Ce ee ee A oh oh A at LP at hs PEP LPP PS SF SPP eae gi FF FP PF FPP wre 25k Novel Coronavirus Daily Cases ® Daily Cases [I > 7-day moving average • I corrected with Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC (see below) what I should have said to John Roberts on FOX • Had great dinner over my house with Peter Staley (and his dog Stella) with Chris, Janet Tobias and John.... 12 September 2020 .Data remains unstab Vy: showing depth of lagging indicator : as the current pate of decline it will take 3-4 more 'weeks to get under 500/day average. But concerning rise in mortality throughout the Heartland and IL 2.Data issues continue in TX and we have a data team on the ground 3.New hospital admissions remain high without substantial declines 4.Increasing hospitalizations/100 cases continues and is widening indicating undertesting in areas of community spread 5.Universities with strong plans for testing and isolation are remaining open -- others continue to close and send students homes -- this is resulting in students going underground and "refusing" to test for fear their university will close or that they will be sent home 6.University of South Carolina is an example of surveillance testing, student testing, isolation and care resulting in improvements 7.Universities need to ensure students are tested, isolated and cared for on campus or in COVID designated areas to ensure containment and prevent spread both into local community and to hometowns 8.The Heartland (AR improving) and SD needs to increase mitigation efforts or will drive further hospitalizations and deaths PRESS: Interview with Newsweek - Fred Guteri; MSNBC with Andrea Mitchell; CNN Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer
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September 12, 2020
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September 13, 2020 Important Day!! - POTUS called me up at around 11:20 AM (Sunday) and started a diatribe about my interview on Friday with Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC. He went on and on about how negative I was on the show. He said that I was great on Thursday with John Roberts (FOX) and so "what happened" to make me negative. I tried to explain to him that the entire message was not all negative. I was really saying that there is a risk with the upticks in ND, SD, MT and other states for a surge if we do not intensify the public health measures of masks, distance, crowds, etc. I emphasized that what I was saying is that we can control this without having to shut down. As soon as I mentioned the word "shut down" he went off saying we will never again shut down as if I was suggesting that we would when I was saying just the opposite. He then went off on asking about 13 September 2020 1. 40% of deaths still coming from CA, TX, Fl showing depth of lagging indicator and concerning rise in mortality throughout the Heartland and IL 2. New hospital admissions remain high without substantial declines : inpatient total declining demonstrating decreasing length of stay 3. Increasing hospitalizations/100 cases continues and is widening indicating undertesting in areas of community spread 4, Universities with strong plans for testing and isolation are remaining open -- others continue to close and send students homes -- this is resulting in some students going underground and "refusing" to test for fear their university will close or that they will be sent home 5. University of South Carolina is an example of surveillance testing, student testing, isolation and care resulting in improvements 6. University of AL and University of MS are undertesting without adequate surveillance but good care and isolation plans 7. SEC has a good testing plan for athletes and cases remain low on mast teams 8. The Heartland (AR improving) and 5D needs to increase mitigation efforts or will drive further haspitalizatians and deaths 9. Attached are the States with red zone test positive (4 states SC, VA, ID, UT) and states with red zone cases (13 States AL, AR, GA, IA, KS, MS, MO, NE, OK, TN, WI, ND, SD -- most heartland states. and residual original southern outbreak) Daily New Cases in the United States Daily New Cases Cases per Day Data as of 0:00 OMT+0 50k 25k D Sab peed ee ae ap oP ee a eS? a Xs og eee ee oP SF ee " os ¥ eye e wr ca Novel Coronavirus Daily Cages @ Daily Cases O > 7-day moving average gj vaccines and saying that I should take credit for success instead emphasizing failures. It really was stream of consciousness. We ended the call on a friendly note, but it was clear that he did not want me to do this anymore. He mentioned whether or not I like Trump, I should not do this. I told him that I do not dislike him and he knows that. He agreed. I will either have to stay off TV or continue to disappoint him since I cannot change my message. This evening when I went up to Chef Geoff's to pick up carry out hamburgers for me and Brett Rowland, every outdoor table serving Chef Geoff and Al Dente was 10, A -- 6,500,000/194,000 NY Times has him raving about conspiracy 14 September 2020 Cases and deaths slowly declining -- primarily due to increases in heartland New daily report shows the lowest number of red states --4 and several of the original red states are now green states New hospital admissions remain high without substantial declines : inpatient total declining demonstrating decreasing length of stay Increasing hospitalizations 100 cases continues and is widening indicating undertesting in areas of community spread Universities with strong plans for testing and isolation are remaining open -- others continue to close and send students homes -- this is resulting insome students going underground and "refusing" to test for fear their university will close or that they will be sent home University of South Carolina is an example of surveillance testing, student testing, isolation and care resulting in improvements. University of AL and University of MS are undertesting without adequate surveillance but good care and isolation plans SEC has a good testing plan for athletes and cases remain low on most teams The Heartland (AR improving) and SD needs to increase mitigation efforts or will drive further hospitalizations and deaths Attached are the States with red zone test positive (4 states SC, VA, ID, UT) and states with red zone cases (13 States AL, AR, GA, LA, KS, M5, MO, NE, OK, TN, WI, ND, 5D -- most heartland states and residual original southern outbreak) Daily New Cases in the United States Daily New Cases Cases per Day Data as af 0:00 GCMT+0 100k if oi o an - Novel Coronavirus Daily Cases Pa Ld k I (iii di I I -- = fo we eh a h rus et gt ab gk of gt ak TS fo ey ae 7 gt cdma Puls : flees od toe PP See ee oe ye PPP Pat ® Dally Cases (] & ?eday moving average occupied and every person at the tables gave me a roaring round of applause as I left Chef Geoff's with my food. It blew me and Brett away. Very moving.
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2020-09-14 00:00
Anthony S. Fauci
September 14, 2020 - Global - 29,000,000/922,000; USA - 6,500,000/194,000 Michael Caputo went crazy. Article in NY Times has him raving about conspiracy theories; "Trump Health Aide Pushes Bizarre Conspiracies and Warns of Armed Revolt" by Sharon LaFraniere umuiative Cconnrme "19 CaSesS The number of confirmed cases is lower than the number of actual cases; the main reason for that is limited testing. Spain Apr 19: methodology change & Apr 25: 500,000 methodology change 400,000 France Jun 2: methodology change 300,000 4 turkey Germany 200,000 (ae 100,000 Belgium eS Poland Se = Switzerland L----_=> = --$SSJaaee Denmark
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Sep 14, 2020 Source: European CDC -- Situation Update Worldwide ro os 9 > fl time) JSA 6,500,000/194,000 A -- 6,600,000/195,100 Europe is starting to surge:
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September 15, 2020 - Global - 29,200,000/927,000; USA 6,500,000/194,000 Had virtual press conference with Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT). They are doing very well with test positivity of 0.2% Had call with Miami Mayors (weekly event) with Deb and Bob Redfield Did 1 hour briefing of Congressional Progressive Caucus (liberal Dems) Task Force meeting. VP gave me a signed enlarged photo of he and I. PRESS: See above press conference in VT; NPR with Joe Palca (pre-recorded for later date);
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September 16, 2020 - Global - 29,400,000; 931,000; USA - 6,600,000/195,100 NATIONWIDE COVID-19 METRICS. 7-DAY AVERAGE LINES Apr 1- Sep 15 Daily Tests Daily Cases Currently Hospitalized Daily Deaths Sep 15: 679,505 Sep 15: 35,445 Sep 15: 30,327 Sep 15: 1,031 80,000 60,000 900,000 70,000 2,500 800,000 50,000 60,000 700, . 00,000 2,000 600,000 50,000 40,000 500,000 1,500 40,000 30,000 400,000 30,000 ee 1,000 300,000 20,000 20,000 200,000 10,000 100,000 10,006 Apr Jun Aug 1 Apr Junt Aug 1 Apr Juni Aug 1 Apr Jun 1 Aug1 Source: The COVID Tracking Project 16 September 2020 1. As noted yesterday : Cases and deaths flat primarily due to increases in heartland NOW cases and deaths increasing with >50% deaths in OH, FL, GA, TX, VA and rising deaths/100 cases in many states. 2. New hospital admissions remain high without substantial declines ;: inpatient total declining demonstrating decreasing length of stay --new admissions climbed last week and this week will also be at that elevated level 3. Increasing hospitalizations/100 cases continues and is widening indicating undertesting in areas of community spread 4. 13 states have a greater than 20% decrease in testing week over week which has been accelerating across the USA over the past 3 weeks 5. With hospitalization and deaths rising/100 cases it is a strong indication that community spread maybe increasing in states and we can't see it due to under testing : this is a very dangerous moment and must be corrected 6. Also most states are NOT reporting their Ag tests and this must be corrected immediately 7. CDC needs to call all the attached states with >20% declines in testing to rapidly increase testing and must tell states that Ag reporting is required --recammend changing Ag cases from probable to a actual case -- the sensitivity and specificity of the new Ag tests match the Abbott ID Now which counts as a case §. Attached are the States with a 20% decline in testing over the last 7 days eet ® Did Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute Leadership Conference with Sanjay Gupta moderating PRESS:Bloomberg News Podcast - David Rubenstein; Business Insider interview; BMJ Podcast; Wall Street Journal podcast interview; Wall Street Journal online event Global USA 17 September 2020 Cases and deaths increasing and this combined with substantial decline in testing (>50% decline in 10 states) slides (15-24) differentially among the yellow states compared to the green states with very low test positivity(slides 26-28) artificially lowering test positivity This is making determination of active community spread very difficult and spread could be occurring silently driving the rate of new admissions and high new admissions/100cases New hospital admissions remain high without substantial declines : inpatient total declining demonstrating decreasing length of stay --new admissions climbed last week and this week will also be at that elevated level Increasing hospitalizations/100 cases continues and is widening indicating undertesting in areas of community spread With hospitalization and deaths rising/100 cases it is a strong indication that community spread maybe increasing in states and we can't see it due to under testing : this is avery dangerous moment and must be corrected Alsa mast states are NOT reporting their Ag tests and this must be corrected immediately Slides 4-11 snapshot of the USA monthly since March 15 -- persistent pockets of high test + that can ignite another significant community spreading event without mitigation Daily New Cases in the United States Daily New Cases Cases per Day hyData as of 0:00 GMT+0 Novel Coronavirus Daily Cases Daily Cases ~~ F-day mowing average
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September 17, 2020 - Global USA Was a panelist on the "CEO Global Perspectives Series Webcast (Oxford, UK) with Michael Earl (Moderator) and Sir John Bell (co-panelist). Great discussion comparing UK and USA experience. Presented to ONE Board on COVID-19 - Bono, Josh Bolten, and Sheryl Sandberg was on the Zoom 18 September 2020 1.From the daily report : new hospital admissions failed to decline for the past 2 weeks 2.Cases and deaths both increasing this week -- deaths should stabilize but then could increase in 2 weeks and continue to rise 3.Test positivity is now unreliable due to dramatic changes in testing profiles across the United States over the past 3 weeks due to the new CDC policy -- which is impacting University and community testing in University towns as well as testing in the Heartland and in most red states 4.This is making determination of active community spread very difficult and it is clear spread is occurring silently driving the rate of new admissions and high new admissions/100cases 5. This Increasing hospitalizations/100 cases continues and is widening indicating undertesting in areas of community spread -- must increase testing in all communities with high university cases as many universities are ONLY testing symptomatic students -- which may only be 10-20% of cases 6.With hospitalization and deaths rising/100 cases it is a strong indication that community spread increasing in states and we can't see it due to under testing : this is a very dangerous moment and must be corrected 7.Most states are NOT reporting their Ag tests and this must be corrected immediately Daily New Cases in the United States Daily New Cases Cases per Day Data as of 0:00 GMT+0 LOOK Fok 50k 25k Novel Coronavirus Daily Cases ~ PP ot Pe ah PP ee ab ray ~ Rey ma ha a a yh a we we we wat F te aes Pog og ey o a o ohh ah a oo ce? ey ® Daily Cases (C) > #-day moving average PRESS: WTOP Radio; MSNBC TV - Chris Hayes