---
type: Conversation
title: Private channel session 1760
description: "slack conversation, 19 messages, 2022-04-08."
tags:
  - conversation
  - slack
medium: slack
message_count: 19
started_at: "2022-04-08T07:16:38"
ended_at: "2022-04-08T08:02:33"
duration_seconds: 2755
sources:
  - { id: slack_pm, resource: /sources/slack-pm.md, title: Slack / Private Message Drop, author: "process:senate-hsgac-release" }
generated: { by: randpaul-corpus-pipeline/1.0, at: "2026-08-01T12:42:27Z" }
status: stable
---

A slack conversation of 19 messages spanning 0h 45m.

# Metadata

- **Started:** 2022-04-08T07:16:38
- **Ended:** 2022-04-08T08:02:33
- **Duration:** 0h 45m
- **Participants:** 3
- **Source:** [slack_pm](/sources/slack-pm.md)
- **Pages:** 1103-1104

# Participants

* [Andrew Rambaut](/people/andrew-rambaut.md)
* [Edward C. Holmes](/people/edward-c-holmes.md)
* [Kristian G. Andersen](/people/kristian-g-andersen.md)
* [Robert F. Garry](/people/robert-f-garry.md)

# Transcript

**[2022-04-08T07:16:38] Andrew Rambaut:** Anyone for BA.4 and BA.5? Straight out of Gauteng/Botswana. Estimated MRCA Nov 2021

**[2022-04-08T07:17:30] Andrew Rambaut:** Has 69/70del (unlike BA.2) and SGTF (and cases) rising in South Africa. Cases in UK, Denmark, Germany - probably elsewhere now

**[2022-04-08T07:21:36] Kristian G. Andersen:** :see_no_evil: :hear_no_evil:

**[2022-04-08T07:22:23] Kristian G. Andersen:** MRCA with BA.1/2?

**[2022-04-08T07:22:25] Andrew Rambaut:** Tulio is cooking these up in his GOF lab

**[2022-04-08T07:22:39] Andrew Rambaut:** No - MRCA within BA.4

**[2022-04-08T07:22:45] Andrew Rambaut:** It is weird

**[2022-04-08T07:22:57] Andrew Rambaut:** Doesn't look like a new selective sweep.

**[2022-04-08T07:23:41] Andrew Rambaut:** Perhaps it was circulating all the time but is now in a slight advantage due to the unusual immune landscape in RSA.Or....

**[2022-04-08T07:23:49] Andrew Rambaut:** perhaps we are all fucked again

**[2022-04-08T07:24:05] Andrew Rambaut:** There are details in the UKHSA tech briefing today

**[2022-04-08T07:24:46] Kristian G. Andersen:** I'm pretty darn convinced BA.1 infection leads to pretty crappy immunity so a slight advantage in evasion while maintaining R0, well...

**[2022-04-08T07:25:36] Kristian G. Andersen:** Pretty sure that's what BA.2 did as well (while being even more transmissible - which is unreal!)

**[2022-04-08T07:56:33] Andrew Rambaut:** The question is, did BA.2 require previous peak of BA.1 to make a second peak? Obviously it would still be able tocreate a first peak in countries where it was the first Omicron.

**[2022-04-08T07:57:06] Andrew Rambaut:** The other thing I am really wondering about now is the 69/70del - it really seems to alternate in UK

**[2022-04-08T07:57:59] Andrew Rambaut:** (OK, only P=0.5^3 so far but if BA.4 takes off that would be P=0.0625

**[2022-04-08T07:59:19] Robert F. Garry:** https://twitter.com/JamesCTobias/status/1512421544198348802 Meanwhile FOIA drama continues...

**[2022-04-08T08:02:09] Andrew Rambaut:** Jeez they are going to be disappointed when they finally get these things.

**[2022-04-08T08:02:33] Andrew Rambaut:** I think it is probably NIH just trolling them to keep them distracted from their Antivaxx misinformation campaign