---
type: Conversation
title: Private channel session 1663
description: "slack conversation, 15 messages, 2021-11-30."
tags:
  - conversation
  - slack
medium: slack
message_count: 15
started_at: "2021-11-30T14:15:34"
ended_at: "2021-11-30T15:26:54"
duration_seconds: 4280
sources:
  - { id: slack_pm, resource: /sources/slack-pm.md, title: Slack / Private Message Drop, author: "process:senate-hsgac-release" }
generated: { by: randpaul-corpus-pipeline/1.0, at: "2026-08-01T12:42:27Z" }
status: stable
---

A slack conversation of 15 messages spanning 1h 11m.

# Metadata

- **Started:** 2021-11-30T14:15:34
- **Ended:** 2021-11-30T15:26:54
- **Duration:** 1h 11m
- **Participants:** 2
- **Source:** [slack_pm](/sources/slack-pm.md)
- **Pages:** 1035-1036

# Participants

* [Andrew Rambaut](/people/andrew-rambaut.md)
* [Edward C. Holmes](/people/edward-c-holmes.md)
* [Kristian G. Andersen](/people/kristian-g-andersen.md)
* [Robert F. Garry](/people/robert-f-garry.md)

# Transcript

**[2021-11-30T14:15:34] Andrew Rambaut:** Had a few journalists saying that omicron started in September. Ian Semple said he had got this from you @Kristian Andersen ? That is way to old in my opinion

**[2021-11-30T14:16:24] Andrew Rambaut:** Blue is Capetown. Orange is Netherlands

**[2021-11-30T14:18:25] Andrew Rambaut:** Here is our current tree - and the outgroup at the bottom is probably dodgy stuff [shared file(s): omicron_2021-11-29_179-Italian.masked.ml.tree.png]

**[2021-11-30T14:18:57] Kristian G. Andersen:** Agreed - it's based on what Kai put in the Science article. I didn't talk to Ian, but our media departed reached outmentioning that more recent estimates seem to converge around mid-October, with a large degree of uncertainty.

**[2021-11-30T14:20:00] Kristian G. Andersen:** NL, ex-RSA in the tree, correct? (given recent - "IT WAS WIDESPREAD IN EUROPE OVER THE SUMMER!!!")

**[2021-11-30T14:20:40] Andrew Rambaut:** Yes. Marion says most of them came from Capetown which is eminently plausible in that tree.

**[2021-11-30T14:21:52] Kristian G. Andersen:** So this bloody things is widespread _all_ over South Africa and presumably most of Southern Africa as well... Bloody hell, it took off fast.

**[2021-11-30T14:21:53] Andrew Rambaut:** @Kristian Andersen Missed this - where was that?

**[2021-11-30T14:23:35] Kristian G. Andersen:** @Kristian Andersen This: https://twitter.com/dmaccannell/status/1465526465336950784?s=20. Duncan taking it on because it's being amplified in US media and everybody is getting pinged about it.

**[2021-11-30T14:25:06] Andrew Rambaut:** Yes - two independent travellers from Mozambique (Italy and Reunion)

**[2021-11-30T14:25:38] Andrew Rambaut:** All within the Gauteng/Botswana diversity

**[2021-11-30T14:35:26] Kristian G. Andersen:** Do we understand what's going on here? Moritz mentioned that places like Gauteng had ~80% attack rates in previous waves, so I'm almost certain immunity is massively eroded. Question is - do we have increased transmission of Omicron to add to that? My gut tells me yes - simply given the speed here.

**[2021-11-30T15:00:31] Andrew Rambaut:** I would be surprised if inherent transmissibility is higher than delta. My gut tells me this is due to massive number ofnew susceptibles and complete lack of any NPIs.

**[2021-11-30T15:10:35] Kristian G. Andersen:** I agree on the massive number of new susceptibles, but some of those mutations in the FCS and NTD + outside the spike - not sure those are only involved in immune escape.

**[2021-11-30T15:26:54] Andrew Rambaut:** NSP6del + Nelly + Pooh is Alpha like .