---
type: Conversation
title: Private channel session 1366
description: "slack conversation, 20 messages, 2021-05-12."
tags:
  - conversation
  - slack
medium: slack
message_count: 20
started_at: "2021-05-12T23:09:08"
ended_at: "2021-05-12T23:37:01"
duration_seconds: 1673
sources:
  - { id: slack_pm, resource: /sources/slack-pm.md, title: Slack / Private Message Drop, author: "process:senate-hsgac-release" }
generated: { by: randpaul-corpus-pipeline/1.0, at: "2026-08-01T12:42:27Z" }
status: stable
---

A slack conversation of 20 messages spanning 0h 27m.

# Metadata

- **Started:** 2021-05-12T23:09:08
- **Ended:** 2021-05-12T23:37:01
- **Duration:** 0h 27m
- **Participants:** 3
- **Source:** [slack_pm](/sources/slack-pm.md)
- **Pages:** 790-792

# Participants

* [Andrew Rambaut](/people/andrew-rambaut.md)
* [Edward C. Holmes](/people/edward-c-holmes.md)
* [Kristian G. Andersen](/people/kristian-g-andersen.md)
* [Robert F. Garry](/people/robert-f-garry.md)

# Transcript

**[2021-05-12T23:09:08] Kristian G. Andersen:** Oh, David got specific - let's crush their arguments...

**[2021-05-12T23:13:36] Edward C. Holmes:** I don't think you an even call those arguments. I've got no stomach for a long email fight. I think we can say just saywe considered all those points in January 2020 but then decided to do some science.

**[2021-05-12T23:15:20] Kristian G. Andersen:** • First cases connected to market • Triangulation of early cases and deaths • Virus found at the market - https://twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1377462189632614404?s=20 • Two different lineages circulating early - https://virological.org/t/early-appearance-of-two-distinct-genomic-lineages-of-sars-[...]ldlife-markets-suggests-sars-cov-2-has-a-natural-origin/691/1• Links back to wildlife farming in e.g., Yunnan• Some evidence of wild animals at market• Very convoluted route from cave > lab > researcher > market (and hugely unlikely somebody wouldmagically find the next pandemic virus)• Andrews equations above - love some good math• No evidence of genetic markers one might expect from lab…

**[2021-05-12T23:18:12] Kristian G. Andersen:** Yeah, not arguments - just speculations from him. I think it's worth engaging - clearly they haven't really thought that hard about it.Probably also worth having a little cheat-list of direct evidence for natural emergence because I see this coming upmore and more. The only thing we're missing is an intermediate host - that may or may exist - or even existed.

**[2021-05-12T23:19:18] Edward C. Holmes:** Let's sleep on it an do it carefully

**[2021-05-12T23:21:43] Andrew Rambaut:** You don't really need to get into the individual arguments I think - just address the non equivalence of saying there isno evidence for either hypothesis - one has a prior probability that is vanishingly small so requires at least some evidence the natural hypothesis is everything else.

**[2021-05-12T23:22:19] Kristian G. Andersen:** Yeah, but the prior doesn't work with them because, Wuhan.

**[2021-05-12T23:22:54] Edward C. Holmes:** I would add: 1. Long evolutionary gap to Yunnan bats. 2. Yunnan bats look close because they mainly sampled Yunnan bats. 3. Two lineages in Wuhan at different markets. 4. No reason not a publish a closer virus before the pandemic.

**[2021-05-12T23:23:42] Andrew Rambaut:** I love this one: > --Closest known (not that close) viral relatives in nature are ~1000 miles from Wuhan So the known relatives are not the close relatives and thus the fact they are far away is expected.

**[2021-05-12T23:24:40] Kristian G. Andersen:** Andrew you nailed that one way back - Ebola virus in West Africa...

**[2021-05-12T23:24:53] Andrew Rambaut:** > To call this scenario a "conspiracy theory" is inappropriate and unfair to everyone involved.

**[2021-05-12T23:25:20] Edward C. Holmes:** Send them this to explain the point: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MMiKyfd6hA0

**[2021-05-12T23:26:56] Andrew Rambaut:** > I would never hang my hat on any of it. But I would send a letter to Science

**[2021-05-12T23:30:02] Edward C. Holmes:** False equivalence is that the gamey tasting menu is full of bloody viruses (although we can't use this). Some ofthese animals were sick and sold.

**[2021-05-12T23:30:09] Kristian G. Andersen:** Andrew - any chance you can please write a point about the likelihood? Basically what you already have but in a few sentences?

**[2021-05-12T23:30:48] Kristian G. Andersen:** > False equivalence is that the gamey tasting menu is full of bloody viruses (although we can't use this). Some ofthese animals were sick and sold.I honestly don't understand we aren't all already dead - it's a fucking miracle.

**[2021-05-12T23:32:40] Edward C. Holmes:** 5. Virus is adapted to spread in multiple hosts (e.g. mink). 6. Same RBD found in pangolins so it is in nature.

**[2021-05-12T23:33:46] Kristian G. Andersen:** "No evidence either way". Sure. Until you think about it.

**[2021-05-12T23:35:45] Kristian G. Andersen:** Alright, off to bed for me - I'll pick it up again tomorrow (unless somebody wants to answer before - I might waste too much time again... :wink: . :beer:

**[2021-05-12T23:37:01] Edward C. Holmes:** Yes, get some rest