--- type: Conversation title: Private channel session 238 description: "slack conversation, 29 messages, 2020-07-23." tags: - conversation - slack medium: slack message_count: 29 started_at: "2020-07-23T07:35:36" ended_at: "2020-07-23T09:12:39" duration_seconds: 5823 sources: - { id: slack_pm, resource: /sources/slack-pm.md, title: Slack / Private Message Drop, author: "process:senate-hsgac-release" } generated: { by: randpaul-corpus-pipeline/1.0, at: "2026-08-01T12:42:27Z" } status: stable --- A slack conversation of 29 messages spanning 1h 37m. # Metadata - **Started:** 2020-07-23T07:35:36 - **Ended:** 2020-07-23T09:12:39 - **Duration:** 1h 37m - **Participants:** 3 - **Source:** [slack_pm](/sources/slack-pm.md) - **Pages:** 103-106 # Participants * [Andrew Rambaut](/people/andrew-rambaut.md) * [Edward C. Holmes](/people/edward-c-holmes.md) * [Kristian G. Andersen](/people/kristian-g-andersen.md) * [Robert F. Garry](/people/robert-f-garry.md) # Transcript **[2020-07-23T07:35:36] Kristian G. Andersen:** Might be worth tuning in for: https://twitter.com/CellPressNews/status/1286096187754459142?s=20 @Robert Garry, we need to discuss challenge trials at some point :wink:. **[2020-07-23T07:49:57] Robert F. Garry:** Wow - that Cell discussion with Gao and Shi should be fun...Not sure I can bring you over to the "dark side" and Ithink it is possible someone could die, but - yeah IMO - controlled trials better than "wild" trials given the circumstances. **[2020-07-23T07:56:45] Kristian G. Andersen:** Yeah, should be interesting. George popped up on a NASEM meeting last week and it was pretty interesting to get his take. A little different than here in the US... I say we just make the whole of Florida a challenge trial :wink: **[2020-07-23T08:14:58] Andrew Rambaut:** I am talking to Wellcome Vaccines dept tomorrow about challenge trials. They are considering which stocks to manufacture. I am not that sure what to tell them other than a basal D614G. **[2020-07-23T08:44:32] Kristian G. Andersen:** Yeah, NIAID asked us about getting an isolate from a "mild infection"... Well, mild, severe, moderate, chances are they're all the same. I agree on getting something as basal on the tree as possible (that's assuming D614G _does not_ show resistance to neutralization - which is a real concern (e.g., GP A82V in Ebola does that). **[2020-07-23T08:45:11] Andrew Rambaut:** Jeremy's preprint suggests it is sensitive to ABs **[2020-07-23T08:45:39] Andrew Rambaut:** But I guess the point is it is the dominant form and will remain so. **[2020-07-23T08:45:58] Kristian G. Andersen:** The UK has been playing hard and loose with viruses in the past, so I wouldn't be surprised if we'd see challenge trials from them. IMO, this virus is much too dangerous with too many uncertain long-term effects to deliberately infect people - especially given the HUGE number of cases we have in this country. **[2020-07-23T08:46:42] Kristian G. Andersen:** Yeah, everything is basically D614G by now, so that's kinda the virus we need to make sure the vaccine works against - but I'm not really concerned there's a difference between Doug and Dougless here. **[2020-07-23T08:47:02] Andrew Rambaut:** I agree that it is probably unnecessary - just try the vaccine. **[2020-07-23T08:48:25] Kristian G. Andersen:** Let's just immunize Florida and see what happens.... :smiling_imp: **[2020-07-23T08:51:01] Robert F. Garry:** I could get begind that **[2020-07-23T08:51:23] Robert F. Garry:** but unfortunately it's not what they doinghttps://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2020/06/02/fauci-modernas-phase-3-covid-19-vaccine-trial-will-include-30000-young-and-old-individuals/#316e15174f75 **[2020-07-23T08:52:55] Kristian G. Andersen:** I'm _super_ worried about Moderna... Just not convinced that thing is safe. **[2020-07-23T08:53:03] Robert F. Garry:** Basically for Moderna they are immunizing/placeboing 30,000 people then sending them out to see how many get infected. **[2020-07-23T08:53:53] Kristian G. Andersen:** They _really_ need to do that trial in high-transmission areas - i.e., not the North East! **[2020-07-23T08:53:57] Robert F. Garry:** Agree - maybe not safe but even more dangerous - it may not work at all or very well - either would be a setback. **[2020-07-23T08:55:11] Kristian G. Andersen:** Yeah, it's unclear to me - definitely appear to be "not safe", but as you say - it could be even worse. I'm super worried this is going to be Trump's next political trick - he would have _no_ hesitation pushing a vaccine through where we have very little or no data on population-wide safety **[2020-07-23T08:58:05] Robert F. Garry:** A small controlled trial of 300 people - maybe fewer- would get you the same information - does it work? you could have an answer in less than a month then move on to the next one if it doesn't. What are they telling these 30,000people - go out to bars? try to get infected. Probably not, but if they are giving them the proper advice - mask upsocial distance etc - you should have VERY FEW infections in the 30,000. Who did the power calculation to get30K? **[2020-07-23T09:00:29] Robert F. Garry:** Population-wise safety another issue - I doubt that any of the 30,000 are in at risk groups - old - respiratory illness,obesity etc. **[2020-07-23T09:00:50] Kristian G. Andersen:** Yup, very true - I'm just very worried that those 300 people wouldn't fully understand what they're signing up for. Need the safety data on the vaccine in any case, which already requires a lot of people - but I guess it depends onwhether we want (a) safety, or (b) efficacy data first. If the latter, challenge trial makes sense. **[2020-07-23T09:01:06] Robert F. Garry:** Yes - it's definitely Trumps next trick for sure.... **[2020-07-23T09:02:17] Kristian G. Andersen:** He'd push it through - _even_ if we knew it was unsafe or even dangerous. No doubt. And that's bloody terrifying. **[2020-07-23T09:02:48] Robert F. Garry:** Enough safety data should be there in the Phase I and II trials - you're right that the Moderna safety data is HIGHLY suspect. **[2020-07-23T09:06:49] Kristian G. Andersen:** If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on ChAdOx1 and Sinovac - I'd forget anything RNA- or DNA-based for now- it's just too early for those platforms. **[2020-07-23T09:08:44] Robert F. Garry:** "fully understand what they're signing up for" - lay it out for them - they might die. We've got a 1000 dying each day just in the US. Yes - some trial participants could die - I think it's less likely with the better treatment regiments -dexy, remdesivir if they get in trouble - give them Ho or Crowe's MAbs. **[2020-07-23T09:10:19] Robert F. Garry:** AGree about the RNA/DNA - There are other vectors that could work too - even VSV- the devil we know.... **[2020-07-23T09:11:13] Kristian G. Andersen:** True - maybe Ad26 too (I don't know enough about that one). Ad5 does not seem appealing, although I'm pretty sure China will approve it (CanSino). **[2020-07-23T09:12:39] Robert F. Garry:** In my mind you definitely want the efficacy data first. If it doesn't work in young and health it won't work in the old and compromised.